LAST WEEK IN REVIEW
The "Data Fog" Confuses the Fed: The 43-day government shutdown has officially ended, but it left a statistical black hole: the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) canceled the October jobs report entirely. This leaves the Federal Reserve making critical interest rate decisions based on "stale" September data—which showed a surprise 119,000 jobs added but an uptick in unemployment to 4.4%—forcing businesses to navigate Q4 with incomplete visibility.
December Rate Cut Odds Jump to 70%: Despite the confusing data, comments from key Federal Reserve officials like Christopher Waller suggest a shift toward protecting the labor market rather than just fighting inflation. Markets are now pricing in an almost 3-in-4 chance of an interest rate cut in December.
Housing Market Splits in Two: For the first time since 2012, more than half (53%) of U.S. homes lost value over the last year, with pandemic "boomtowns" like Austin and Tampa seeing significant price drops. Conversely, the Northeast and Midwest remain stable, creating a sharp regional divide where buying opportunities are surfacing in the South and West, while affordability remains tight elsewhere.
Nvidia Earnings Prove AI Spend is Durable: Nvidia (NVDA) beat Wall Street expectations with $57 billion in quarterly revenue, fueled by "off the charts" demand for its new Blackwell chips. While the stock slid slightly due to broader market weakness, the report confirms that major corporations are not slowing down their capital expenditure on Artificial Intelligence infrastructure, signaling long-term stability for the tech sector.
Consumer Sentiment Hits All-Time Lows: A stark disconnect has emerged between data and feeling: while the Atlanta Fed’s "GDPNow" model predicts a healthy 4.2% growth for the economy, the University of Michigan’s index for current economic conditions crashed to an all-time low. This signals a "vibecession" where high-level growth masks the financial strain felt by average households grappling with the cumulative effects of inflation.
YOUR WEEKLY FORECAST
Tuesday, Nov 25
Data: Consumer Confidence, Producer Price Index, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, FHFA Housing Price Index, Pending Home Sales
Summary: A critical check on the consumer and inflation. The Consumer Confidence report will tell us if household optimism is holding up despite high prices, while the PPI report (often a leading indicator for CPI) gives us a look at wholesale inflation pressures in the pipeline.
Investor Take:
- Inflation Watch: A hot PPI reading would reignite fears of "sticky" inflation, pressuring bonds ($TLT) and potentially weighing on tech stocks ($QQQ).
- Consumer Health: Strong confidence numbers coupled with solid pending home sales would suggest the consumer is resilient, bullish for consumer discretionary stocks ($XLY).
Wednesday, Nov 26
Data: PCE Prices, Q3 GDP, Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods Orders, New Home Sales, Chicago PMI, Advance Trade in Goods, Jobless Claims, EIA Crude & Natural Gas
Summary: This is one of the busiest economic calendar days of the year. The headline event is the Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. Coupled with the second estimate of Q3 GDP and Personal Spending data, this single morning will define the market's growth and inflation narrative for the next month.
Investor Take:
- The Fed's Verdict: If Core PCE comes in cool (at or below expectations), it cements the case for Fed rate cuts, fueling a "Santa Claus Rally" in stocks ($SPY) and bonds.
- Growth vs. Stagnation: Watch Durable Goods and Personal Spending. If these are weak while inflation remains high, "stagflation" chatter will return, hitting small caps ($IWM) hardest.
- Energy: With both Oil and Nat Gas inventories releasing on the same day, expect heightened volatility in energy names ($XLE).
HALAL STOCK SPOTLIGHT*
All stocks are screened for sharia-compliance on Musaffa. We also exclude companies in the following three databases: WhoProfits.org, The Official BDS Targets, The American Friends Service Committee Database
Analysts have raised their price target for Keysight Technologies to $190.46, driven by expectations of stronger revenue growth and margin expansion. This optimism stems from accelerating demand in core markets and the anticipated benefits of recent strategic acquisitions.
1. Accelerating AI Infrastructure Demand
The rapid adoption of AI across digital infrastructure is fueling demand for advanced testing solutions, particularly in compute and networking. This trend is driving double-digit growth in wireline and commercial communications as AI workloads expand to new segments.
2. Leadership in Next-Gen Wireless
Keysight's early engagement in 5G-Advanced and 6G research positions it to capture significant market share as new global wireless standards are deployed. This leadership supports a stable order outlook and future revenue growth.
3. Margin Expansion and Strategic Acquisitions
The company is expected to benefit from operational synergies and a shift toward higher-margin software and recurring services. Consequently, analysts have improved their projections for both revenue growth and net profit margins.
*READ OUR DISCLAIMER AT THE BOTTOM OF THE NEWSLETTER BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENTS
MOVERS & SHAKERS
Dr. Rana el Kaliouby and Category Design
Dr. Rana el Kaliouby invented a new layer of the internet. As the co-founder of Affectiva (spun out of MIT and acquired by Smart Eye), she pioneered "Emotion AI"—technology that allows computers to recognize human emotions from facial expressions and voice. While investors initially asked for simple applications, she played the long game of Category Design. She didn't position her tech as just a better sensor; she highlighted the problem of the "emotion-blind digital world," making her solution the inevitable answer for industries ranging from automotive safety (detecting drowsy drivers) to media analytics. She wrote the book on it— Girl Decoded —and established herself as the primary intellectual authority in the space. If you are early, stop selling the product and start selling the category. You cannot be the leader of a market that doesn't exist yet; you must define the problem so clearly that the world realizes they need your specific solution to solve it.
Read more about Rana on her website
MONEY TALKS
Q: I’m starting a dropshipping side-hustle to diversify my income. Any Shariah red flags I missed?
Dropshipping is the Internet’s classic gateway drug to entrepreneurship. It seems harmless, but it often trips over a fundamental Islamic trade principle: "Do not sell what you do not possess."
In a classic dropshipping model, you sell a customer a product you don't actually own yet. You only buy it from your supplier after you've taken the customer's money. This introduces uncertainty (gharar)—what if the supplier is out of stock? What if they ship a brick instead of a blender?
To make your side-hustle halal, you need a slight structural tweak. You can either:
Adopt the Agency Model: Clearly state you are an agent acting on behalf of the supplier (harder to market, but transparent).
Take Ownership First: The preferred method. Actually buy the inventory before you sell it. If that’s too capital-intensive, ensure your contract with the customer clarifies that the sale is only finalized once you have secured possession of the item from your supplier.
In today’s world, who you know is becoming more important than what you know. Join the largest online community of Muslim professionals in North America at muslimprofessionals.us.
That's all for this week. Make it a great one.
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