LAST WEEK IN REVIEW
Shutdown Ends, But Key Data May Be Lost Forever President Trump signed a deal to end the 43-day government shutdown, the longest in US history. While this will restart government services, the data blackout has left the Federal Reserve "flying blind," and officials warned that key reports, like the October jobs and inflation (CPI) data, may be delayed until mid-December or never be released at all.
The Fed Gets Cold Feet on Rate Cuts Market expectations for a December interest rate cut collapsed this week (from 66% to 41%) after a wave of "hawkish" (meaning they favor higher rates to fight inflation) Fed officials spoke out. Key members like Mary Daly and Susan Collins said it's "premature" to cut rates, citing "stubborn" inflation and a desire to hold rates steady, sharply reversing the market's previous assumptions.
Auto Loan Delinquencies Hit 1994 Levels The share of subprime auto borrowers (those with poor credit scores) who are 60+ days past due on their loans surged to 6.65%, the highest level since 1994. This is a clear sign of distress, as $50,000+ average new car prices and high interest rates create an affordability crisis for vulnerable consumers.
The "K-Shaped" Economy Worsens Bank of America data confirmed the "K-shaped" economy is widening. Nearly 30% of low-income households are now living paycheck-to-paycheck—a number that continues to rise—while the number of middle- and high-income households in the same situation remains stable, highlighting how inflation and slowing wage growth are disproportionately hurting the bottom.
Bitcoin Erases All 2025 Gains In a stunning reversal, Bitcoin fell below $93,714, wiping out its entire 30%+ gain for the year. The crash, which comes just a month after a record high of $126,251, is being blamed on a "risk-off" mood as institutional buyers pull back from the crypto market.
Consumer Sentiment Plunges to 3-Year Low The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index crashed to 50.3, its lowest reading since 2022. The report directly cited consumer worries over the economic consequences of the prolonged government shutdown as the primary driver for the collapse in confidence.
Economic Data Shows a Muddled Picture While most official data was absent, small business optimism (NFIB) slipped slightly, and crude oil inventories saw a larger-than-expected build of 6.41 million barrels. However, the Atlanta Fed's Q3 GDP "nowcast" held firm at a strong 4.0%.
YOUR WEEKLY FORECAST
Tuesday, Nov 18
Data: Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, NAHB Housing Market Index, Net Long-Term TIC Flows
Summary: A busy day for the "real" economy. Industrial Production measures the output of factories and mines, while the NAHB index surveys homebuilders on their sales outlook. TIC flows show foreign demand for U.S. assets, especially Treasuries.
Investor Take:
- The NAHB index is a key forward-look for housing. A rising number is bullish for homebuilders ($XHB, $ITB).
- Weak Industrial Production could weigh on commodity and industrial stocks. Strong TIC flows are supportive of the U.S. dollar ($UUP) and can help keep bond yields in check.
Wednesday, Nov 19
Data: NVIDIA (NVDA) Q3 Earnings
Summary: The entire market's attention will be on NVIDIA's results after the bell. As the primary driver of the AI-led market rally, NVDA's report is no longer just a "tech" event; it's a macro-level catalyst for the entire market.
Investor Take:
- The Main Event: NVIDIA's results, and more importantly its forward guidance, will be seen as a referendum on the entire AI boom.
- Strong results could re-ignite the rally in tech ($QQQ) and the broader market ($SPY).
- Any disappointment in data center revenue or future guidance could trigger a violent repricing across the tech sector and undermine market confidence.
Thursday, Nov 20
Data: Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales, Philadelphia Fed Index, Leading Economic Indicators
Summary: A high-volume data day. Jobless claims offer a real-time pulse on the labor market. The Philly Fed and LEI reports provide further clues on the economy's forward momentum.
Investor Take:
- If the market is reacting poorly to NVDA's earnings, this secondary data is unlikely to change the negative sentiment.
- If NVDA was positive, a drop in jobless claims would add fuel to the rally, confirming a "soft landing" narrative.
Friday, Nov 21
Data: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
Summary: The week closes with the final look at consumer sentiment for November. The key component to watch is the "inflation expectations" reading, which the Federal Reserve monitors closely.
Investor Take:
- A surprise drop in sentiment could be a red flag for future consumer spending, which is the engine of the U.S. economy.
- A fall in the 5-year inflation expectation reading would be bullish for bonds ($TLT), as it gives the Fed more room to eventually cut rates..
HALAL STOCK SPOTLIGHT*
All stocks are screened for sharia-compliance on Musaffa. We also exclude companies in the following three databases: WhoProfits.org, The Official BDS Targets, The American Friends Service Committee Database
Insulet is revolutionizing diabetes management with its innovative, tubeless Omnipod insulin delivery systems. The company has demonstrated strong operational momentum, commanding a market cap of nearly $23 billion.
1. Resilient Global Growth
The company has averaged 26.8% constant currency growth over the past two years. This impressive track record proves Insulet can expand its global footprint effectively, regardless of the macroeconomic environment.
2. Surging Cash Flow Margins
Financial flexibility has improved dramatically, with free cash flow margins jumping by 32.6 percentage points over the last five years. This influx of cash gives the company ample resources to fund growth initiatives or return capital to shareholders.
3. Superior Capital Allocation
Rising returns on capital indicate that management is skilled at finding high-value investment opportunities. This efficiency suggests the company is deploying its resources effectively to drive long-term value.
*READ OUR DISCLAIMER AT THE BOTTOM OF THE NEWSLETTER BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENTS
MOVERS & SHAKERS
Mohed Altrad and the Art of the Roll-Up
If you think "high growth" only applies to software, you haven’t met Mohed Altrad. Born into a Bedouin tribe in Syria and orphaned at a young age, Altrad moved to France and built the Altrad Group into a scaffolding and industrial services empire with over €5 billion in revenue. His strategy wasn't a tech disruption; it was a relentless "roll-up" of distressed assets. Altrad bought over 100 smaller, often bankrupt competitors in a fragmented, unsexy industry. But here is the twist: instead of gutting them for parts, he imposed a decentralized management structure that gave local managers autonomy while enforcing a singular, rigorous cultural standard of profit and safety. He turned "boring" commodity businesses into a cohesive, high-margin global machine. Don't just look for innovation; look for fragmentation. Wealth is often hidden in unsexy, disjointed industries where you can apply a superior operating system to consolidate the market and command pricing power.
Read more about Mohed on Forbes
MONEY TALKS
Rent Your House to Your Boss (Even If It’s You)
If you own a business or a side hustle structured as an S-Corp or LLC, you likely hold strategy meetings, monthly reviews, or board meetings. You might rent a co-working space or a hotel conference room for these.
Stop doing that. You are lighting money on fire.
Instead, you should be renting your own home to your business.
This is known as The Augusta Rule (Section 280A). It’s a tax provision originally created for homeowners who wanted to rent their homes to golfers during the Masters Tournament tax-free. But here is how smart professionals use it:
The Strategy: Your business rents your personal residence for a legitimate business meeting (board meeting, strategy session, content planning day). The business pays you rent, and you pocket the cash.
The Magic:
The Business Deduction: Your company writes off the rental fee as a valid business expense, lowering its taxable income.
The Tax-Free Income: YOU, the individual, receive that rental income 100% tax-free. You don't even have to report it on your tax return.
It is effectively a way to move money from your business to your personal bank account without paying a cent of tax on it.
The Rules (Do Not Mess These Up):
14-Day Cap: You can do this for a maximum of 14 days per year. If you rent it for 15 days, the whole thing becomes taxable.
Get Comps: The rent must be "fair market value." You can’t charge yourself $5,000 for a Tuesday. Find quotes for a local conference room or hotel suite and charge your business that same daily rate.
Paper Trail: You must treat it like a real rental. Create an invoice, pay with a business check/transfer, and—most importantly—take meeting minutes to prove legitimate business was discussed.
If you have a monthly board meeting with your spouse or partners, that’s 12 days of tax-free income sitting right there. Why give that money to the IRS when you can pay it to yourself?
In today’s world, who you know is becoming more important than what you know. Join the largest online community of Muslim professionals in North America at muslimprofessionals.us.
That's all for this week. Make it a great one.
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