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LAST WEEK IN REVIEW
Inflation Cools More Than Expected The CPI came in lower than anticipated, with headline inflation at 3.0% year-over-year. This slight moderation in price pressures gives the Fed more room to consider another rate cut at its upcoming meeting.
Optimism Rises for US-China Summit After a week of escalating tensions—including a new US "Section 301" trade probe and a rare earth pact with Australia—weekend talks in Malaysia have yielded a "substantial framework" for this Thursday's Trump-Xi summit. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated he no longer anticipates the 100% tariff hike on Nov. 1, with President Trump acknowledging that "concessions" will be needed from both sides.
Trump "Terminates" Canada Trade Talks... Again President Trump declared all trade negotiations with Canada "terminated" in a late-night social media post, later threatening an additional 10% tariff on Canadian imports as tensions rise.
Quantum Stocks Soar on Government Stake Reports Shares of quantum computing firms like IonQ and Rigetti spiked on reports that the US government is in talks to take equity stakes in the companies, signaling a push for national investment in the sector.
"Debasement Trade" Rally Pauses Gold prices stabilized after their worst intraday drop in over 12 years, while Bitcoin also plunged. The sharp sell-off represented a pause in the massive rally as investors locked in profits from the trade hedging against fiat currency devaluation.
Meme Stocks Surge in Throwback to 2021 Stocks like Beyond Meat and Krispy Kreme exploded in a speculative frenzy, with Beyond Meat surging over 900% in five days. The rally was driven by retail traders piling into heavily shorted names, signaling a return of the "themes and memes" environment.
Services Sector Activity Beats Expectations October's S&P Global Services PMI rose to 55.2, signaling a stronger-than-expected expansion in the services economy.
Manufacturing PMI Edges Higher The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI also beat forecasts, rising to 52.2 and indicating modest growth in the factory sector.
Consumer Sentiment Hits New Low The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell unexpectedly to 53.6, showing a worsening outlook from the average American.
Existing Home Sales Show Signs of Life Existing home sales for September beat estimates, rising to an annual rate of 4.06 million, suggesting some stabilization in the housing market.
Crude Oil Inventories See Surprise Draw EIA data showed an unexpected decrease in crude oil inventories of nearly 1 million barrels, which could support energy prices.
Natural Gas Inventories Build as Expected Natural gas inventories saw a seasonal build of 87 billion cubic feet, in line with market expectations for winter storage.
Q3 GDP Forecast Remains Strong The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow "nowcast" for third-quarter economic growth held steady at a robust 3.9%.
YOUR WEEKLY FORECAST
With stocks at record levels, market expectations are extremely high for three potentially volatile events:
Mega-Cap Tech Earnings (Wed/Thur): Reports from Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOGL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) are critical. This bull market has been largely driven by technology and AI, making these earnings a crucial test of the market's foundation.
U.S.-China Trade Meeting (Thur): A meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi is scheduled. Given the market volatility surrounding trade relations this month, any news from this meeting could have an immediate and significant impact.
FOMC Rate Decision (Wed): Expectations are firmly set for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, reinforcing its "accommodative" (pro-growth) stance. Any deviation from this script could surprise markets.
Economic Catalysts
Wednesday, October 29th:
FOMC Rate Decision: Interest rates will set the cost of borrowing for everything from mortgages to business loans.
Thursday, October 30th:
Q3 GDP (Advanced Reading): This is the first and most significant look at the economy's overall growth rate during the third quarter.
Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims: The most up-to-date weekly snapshot of the labor market's health, tracking the pace of layoffs.
Friday, October 31st:
Core PCE Prices: The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation and will be scrutinized heavily following the FOMC meeting.
Personal Income & Spending: Shows whether consumers' earnings are growing and, more importantly, if they are spending that money.
Employment Cost Index: A critical report that tracks the growth of wages and benefits.
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING*
All stocks are screened for sharia-compliance on Musaffa. We also exclude companies in the following three databases: WhoProfits.org, The Official BDS Targets, The American Friends Service Committee Database
LONG TERM PLAYS:
Author’s Note: I’m becoming increasingly wary of the sustainability of AI capex spending and the concentration of the S&P 500 in AI-related stocks. Watch Big Tech earnings closely this week for signs of AI weakness. I’m bullish on gold as a hedge against a stock market crash, and I believe the debasement trade still has legs. Watch this video on why we might be entering another bubble, and check out this X post from economist Mark Zandi on the possibility of a looming recession
Micron Technology ($MU ( ▲ 4.17% )):
Price Target: $240/share
Recent Analyst Coverage
Lam Research Company ($LRCX ( ▼ 3.3% )):
Price Target: $142/share
Recent Analyst Coverage: Earnings beat, positive guidance
Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM ( ▲ 0.93% )):
Price Target: $335/share
Recent Analyst Coverage: Undervalued looking at P/E ratio compared to semiconductor peers
Broadcom ($AVGO ( ▲ 0.73% )):
Price Target: $387/share
Recent Analyst Coverage
Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD ( ▼ 0.46% )):
Price Target: $300/share
Recent Analyst Coverage
Arista Networks ($ANET ( ▲ 0.82% )):
Price Target: $170/share
Recent Analyst Coverage
NEW
Gold ($XAUUSD ( 0.0% )):
Price Target: $4,600
Recent Analyst Coverage: Central bank purchases, geopolitical tensions, dollar weakness
STOCKS TO WATCH
Vertiv Holdings Co ($VRT ( ▲ 4.48% ))
Thoughts: Could be well positioned to capitalize on AI infrastructure buildout.
Western Digital ($WDC ( ▲ 0.43% ))
Thoughts: The data storage company could benefit from AI infrastructure, increased PC demand from users migrating Windows 10 to Windows 11, and momentum on a possible earnings earnings beat on 10/30
*READ OUR DISCLAIMER AT THE BOTTOM OF THE NEWSLETTER BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENTS
MOVERS & SHAKERS
Imran Amed and the 'Davos' Model
While fashion media chased clicks with celebrity gossip, Imran Amed, a Harvard-educated ex-McKinsey consultant, launched Business of Fashion from his living room. He's since built it into the industry's indispensable $100M+ intelligence service by ignoring the consumer and focusing relentlessly on the professional. His 'how' was to create a B2B "Intel" powerhouse disguised as a media brand. He provides data-driven, analytical, and unsexy reports on supply chains, executive moves, and market financials that decision-makers need to do their jobs. He then capped this with high-margin, exclusive events (like BoF Voices), creating the "Davos of Fashion" where the industry's elite pay to connect. The principle is powerfully replicable: In any industry, stop talking to the fans and start solving problems for the players. Build the one resource the executives, investors, and operators must read to protect their P&L, and you'll own the market.
Read more about him on BoF’s website
MONEY TALKS
A Tax-Free Way to Pay for Islamic School (Revised)
We’ve heard about 529 plans for education savings. The problem? They are "financial black boxes." You're forced to pick from a pre-set menu of mutual funds, almost none of which are sharia-compliant.
So, how do you save for your child's Islamic school or college education in a tax-advantaged and principled way?
Meet the Coverdell Education Savings Account (ESA).
A Coverdell is a tax-advantaged account that solves the compliance problem because it is self-directed. You can open one at a brokerage like Fidelity and buy exactly what you want—namely, sharia-compliant assets.
Here's the breakdown:
Halal Investing: You have full control. Your money grows in assets you've vetted, not in a generic fund that's profiting from interest (riba) or alcohol.
Tax-Free Growth & Withdrawals: Just like a Roth, your investments grow completely tax-free, and you pay zero tax when you withdraw the money for qualified education expenses.
K-12 Tuition is Included: This is the key. Just like the 529, a Coverdell can be used tax-free for tuition at all levels, including K-12 private school—perfect for that Islamic school bill.
So, what’s the catch?
The Income Cap: The ability to contribute is phased out for married couples with an income over $220,000.
The Contribution Limit: You can only contribute a maximum of $2,000 per child, per year.
While $2,000 won't cover the whole tuition bill, it's a mistake to ignore it. This is a great tool to create a dedicated, tax-free investment bucket for your child's education that is also 100% sharia-compliant.
Shoutout to readers Malak and Kashif for calling out the 529’s shortcomings in last week’s issue. Halal wealth building is complex and requires us to correct one another and highlight alternatives.
In today’s world, who you know is becoming more important than what you know. Join the largest online community of Muslim professionals in North America at muslimprofessionals.us.
That's all for this week. Make it a great one.
How did you like this week's issue?
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Please read this disclaimer carefully before proceeding. By reading and using the information provided in this newsletter, you acknowledge and agree to the terms outlined below.
1. Not Financial or Investment Advice The content provided in this newsletter, including all articles, market analysis, economic news, stock picks, trading plans (including entry prices, stop losses, price targets), catalysts, and risk assessments, is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be construed as financial, investment, tax, legal, or any other form of professional advice. No fiduciary relationship is created by your subscription to or use of this newsletter.
2. Consult a Professional Advisor The author(s) and publisher of this newsletter are not licensed financial advisors, registered investment advisers, or broker-dealers. You should not make any investment decision based solely on the information presented here. It is imperative that you consult with a qualified and licensed financial professional to determine if a particular investment or strategy is suitable for your individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.
3. Inherent Risk of Investing All forms of investing carry significant risk. The stock market is volatile, and you may lose some or all of your invested capital. There is no guarantee that any of the strategies or stock picks discussed will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
4. No Guarantee of Accuracy or Completeness While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, we make no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, adequacy, validity, reliability, availability, or completeness of any information in this newsletter. We are not liable for any errors, omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All information is provided on an "as-is" basis.
5. Disclaimer on "Halal" and Shariah Compliance The term "halal stock picks" refers to securities that have been screened against certain publicly available, third-party Shariah-compliance criteria at the time of publication. These standards can vary among different scholars, organizations, and screening services. The Shariah-compliant status of a company can change over time. We make no guarantee or warranty as to the Shariah-compliant status of any security mentioned. It is your sole responsibility to conduct your own due diligence and consult with your own qualified religious scholar to determine if an investment aligns with your personal Islamic principles.
6. Separation from Muslim Professionals of the Americas This newsletter is an independent publication. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed herein belong solely to the author(s) of the newsletter and do not represent the views, policies, or official positions of the nonprofit organization Muslim Professionals of the Americas, its board of directors, officers, or members. Muslim Professionals of the Americas is a separate legal entity and assumes absolutely no liability or responsibility for the content of this newsletter, any financial losses, or any other damages incurred from its use.
7. Personal Holdings The author(s) of this newsletter may, from time to time, hold positions in the securities mentioned herein. The presentation of any stock is not a solicitation or direct recommendation to buy or sell that security.
