LAST WEEK IN REVIEW
Inflation Stabilizes as Sentiment Rebounds: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—rose 2.8% year-over-year, meeting expectations, while consumer sentiment jumped to 53.3 on falling inflation expectations.
Labor Market Divergence, Hiring Freezes vs. Low Claims: Data reveals a sharp divide: Private payrolls fell by 32,000 (ADP) and announced layoffs surged, yet new unemployment claims dropped to a three-year low.
'Trump Accounts' Proposed as New Child Savings Vehicle: The administration unveiled a plan for tax-deferred accounts for children under 18, featuring a $1,000 government deposit but taxing withdrawals as ordinary income.
Auto Regulation Rollback Favors Gas-Powered Vehicles: New directives have terminated strict fuel economy standards and EV penalties, with the stated goal of lowering the sticker price of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles. This follows the end of EV tax credits just a few months ago.
Momentum Builds for Congressional Stock Trading Ban: A bipartisan group of lawmakers filed a discharge petition to force a floor vote on legislation that would ban members of Congress from trading individual stocks.
'Buy Now, Pay Later' (BNPL) Risks Trigger Regulatory Scrutiny: With half of holiday shoppers expected to use BNPL services, state attorneys general are investigating the risks of this "shadow debt" which often lacks stringent underwriting.
YOUR WEEKLY FORECAST
Tuesday, December 9
Data:
- JOLTS – Job Openings
- Productivity (Revised)
- Unit Labor Costs
The Advisor's Take: All eyes are on the JOLTS report (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey). The Federal Reserve historically prefers to see job openings decline, which suggests the labor market is cooling enough to stifle wage inflation without causing a spike in unemployment.
The Trade: If job openings come in unexpectedly "hot" (high), markets may interpret this as a sign that the economy is running too warm for rate cuts. This could pressure bond prices, causing yields to rise ($TLT) and potentially weighing on interest-rate-sensitive sectors like real estate ($XLRE).
Wednesday, December 10
Data:
- FOMC Rate Decision
- Oracle Earnings ($ORCL)
- EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The Advisor's Take: This is the pivotal day of the week. While the FOMC Rate Decision will dictate the macro narrative regarding the path of interest rates, the corporate spotlight is on Oracle ($ORCL).
The AI Narrative: Oracle’s report is shaping up to be a potentially binary event for the broader AI trade ($QQQ). Market watchers are concerned about "AI overinvestment"—spending heavily on infrastructure without immediate ROI—and Oracle's significant debt issuance.
Credit Warning: Notably, Oracle’s Credit Default Swaps (CDS)—essentially insurance against the company defaulting—have risen to their highest levels since 2009. A strong report could assuage fears about the sustainability of AI spending; a disappointment could sour sentiment across the tech sector.
Thursday, December 11
Data:
- Producer Price Index (PPI) & Core PPI
- Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
The Advisor's Take: Following the Fed's decision, investors will immediately look to the PPI, which measures inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches the consumer.
Why It Matters: If producers are paying more for goods, they historically pass those costs on to consumers, which shows up later in the CPI. A "hot" PPI print could suggest that inflation is stickier than hoped.
Market Reaction: Keep an eye on the S&P 500 ($SPY). If both jobless claims remain low and PPI comes in high, it reinforces a "higher for longer" rate environment, which typically creates headwinds for equity valuations.
HALAL STOCK SPOTLIGHT*
All stocks are screened for sharia-compliance on Zoya. We also exclude companies in the following three databases: WhoProfits.org, The Official BDS Targets, The American Friends Service Committee Database
Chewy, Inc. (CHWY)
The Business Model Chewy operates as a leading direct-to-consumer e-commerce retailer for pet products, generating revenue through the online sale of food, supplies, and medications, as well as subscription services like the Chewy+ membership.
The Bull Case Bulls argue that the company's raised full-year sales guidance and the launch of the "Get Real" fresh food line demonstrate strong execution on growth initiatives and an expanding market share. Furthermore, optimism is bolstered by the company's confidence to increase Chewy+ membership fees—signaling pricing power—and its continued allocation of capital toward share repurchases.
The Bear Case Conversely, risks include potential near-term margin compression as the company increases operating expenses to fund its aggressive reinvestment strategy. Bears also point to the stock's elevated future P/E multiple and rising discount rates, suggesting that the current valuation may already price in much of the expected growth, leaving the stock vulnerable to volatility if profitability targets are missed.
*Please read the disclaimer at the end of this email before forming any opinions on the stock.
MONEY TALKS
Q: I treat my credit card like a debit card and pay it off in full every month. Is it halal to use it just for the points and miles?
This is the most common loophole question in the book. Technically, signing a contract that agrees to pay interest (even if you never plan to trigger it) is problematic to many strict scholars.
However, the prevailing view for Muslims living in the West is that credit cards are permissible, provided two non-negotiable conditions are met:
The Zero-Interest Rule: You must pay the full balance every single billing cycle. The moment you pay a cent of interest, you have entered into Riba. If you lack the discipline to pay it off, the card is haram for you.
The Perks: The points, cash back, and airline miles are generally considered a Hibah (gift) or a discount from the issuer/merchant. They are permissible to use, so enjoy the free flight—just don't use the card to buy haram goods (alcohol, pork, etc.), as you generally earn points on the purchase.
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That's all for this week. Make it a great one.
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IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMER*
Please read this disclaimer carefully before proceeding. By reading and using the information provided in this newsletter, you acknowledge and agree to the terms outlined below.
1. Not Financial or Investment Advice The content provided in this newsletter, including all articles, market analysis, economic news, stock picks, trading plans (including entry prices, stop losses, price targets), catalysts, and risk assessments, is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be construed as financial, investment, tax, legal, or any other form of professional advice. No fiduciary relationship is created by your subscription to or use of this newsletter.
2. Consult a Professional Advisor The author(s) and publisher of this newsletter are not licensed financial advisors, registered investment advisers, or broker-dealers. You should not make any investment decision based solely on the information presented here. It is imperative that you consult with a qualified and licensed financial professional to determine if a particular investment or strategy is suitable for your individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.
3. Inherent Risk of Investing All forms of investing carry significant risk. The stock market is volatile, and you may lose some or all of your invested capital. There is no guarantee that any of the strategies or stock picks discussed will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
4. No Guarantee of Accuracy or Completeness While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, we make no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, adequacy, validity, reliability, availability, or completeness of any information in this newsletter. We are not liable for any errors, omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All information is provided on an "as-is" basis.
5. Disclaimer on "Halal" and Shariah Compliance The term "halal stock picks" refers to securities that have been screened against certain publicly available, third-party Shariah-compliance criteria at the time of publication. These standards can vary among different scholars, organizations, and screening services. The Shariah-compliant status of a company can change over time. We make no guarantee or warranty as to the Shariah-compliant status of any security mentioned. It is your sole responsibility to conduct your own due diligence and consult with your own qualified religious scholar to determine if an investment aligns with your personal Islamic principles.
6. Separation from Muslim Professionals of the Americas This newsletter is an independent publication. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed herein belong solely to the author(s) of the newsletter and do not represent the views, policies, or official positions of the nonprofit organization Muslim Professionals of the Americas, its board of directors, officers, or members. Muslim Professionals of the Americas is a separate legal entity and assumes absolutely no liability or responsibility for the content of this newsletter, any financial losses, or any other damages incurred from its use.
7. Personal Holdings The author(s) of this newsletter may, from time to time, hold positions in the securities mentioned herein. The presentation of any stock is not a solicitation or direct recommendation to buy or sell that security.
