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LAST WEEK IN REVIEW
US and China Call a Major Trade Truce China committed to halting fentanyl precursor flows, eliminating its new rare earth export controls, ending all retaliatory tariffs on US goods (including soybeans), and dropping investigations into US semiconductor firms. In return, the US will lower some tariffs and suspend other planned hikes, providing massive relief to agricultural and tech sectors.
Fed Cuts Rates Again Amid Division The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25% to a 3.75%-4.00% range, but the decision was not unified. Governor Stephen Miran voted for a larger 0.50% cut, while KC Fed President Jeff Schmid voted for no cut at all, citing high inflation. Fed Chair Powell, noting the lack of data from the government shutdown, warned that a December cut is "not a foregone conclusion."
Fed Hawks Publicly Oppose More Cuts Following the split decision, a growing chorus of Fed officials (including Schmid, Logan, Hammack, and Bostic) publicly stated they would have preferred to hold rates steady. Their main concern is that inflation remains stubbornly stuck near 3%, and further cuts are unnecessary, casting significant doubt on market hopes for more easing in December.
Mass Layoffs Hit Amazon, UPS, and Target A wave of corporate job cuts was announced, including 14,000 at Amazon, 1,800 at Target, and a staggering 48,000 combined (operational and management) at UPS. While Amazon's CEO blamed pandemic over-hiring rather than AI, the cuts add to worker anxiety in a "no-hire, no-fire" job market where some firms, like Chegg, are explicitly blaming AI for revenue hits and layoffs.
Nvidia Unleashes Deal-Making Frenzy At its GTC conference, Nvidia announced a torrent of partnerships, solidifying its dominance in the AI arms race. The deals include building new supercomputers for the Dept. of Energy, developing a 100,000-vehicle robotaxi fleet with Uber, partnering with Nokia on 6G tech (and taking a 3% stake), and building an AI supercomputer for Eli Lilly to accelerate drug discovery.
Mag 7 Earnings Show AI Spending Strain Big Tech earnings were a mixed bag, defined by soaring AI costs. Amazon and Alphabet beat expectations, but Meta and Microsoft shares fell after both companies warned investors of significantly higher capital spending (capex) to build out AI infrastructure, raising concerns about the uncertain payoff of the expensive AI arms race.
OpenAI Officially Becomes a For-Profit Company The AI lab behind ChatGPT completed its conversion to a for-profit entity, clarifying Microsoft's stake at 27%. The move allows the $500B-valued company to raise massive new investments and potentially pursue a stock market debut.
Consumer Confidence Dips to Six-Month Low The October Consumer Confidence report fell to 94.6, a six-month low and below expectations, signaling growing pessimism among households.
Housing Market Sends Mixed Signals The housing market remained fractured, with existing-home sales beating estimates at 4.06 million, while pending home sales (a forward-looking indicator) unexpectedly stalled, showing no monthly growth.
Crude Oil Inventories See Massive Draw Crude oil stockpiles fell by a much larger-than-expected 6.86 million barrels, putting upward pressure on energy prices.
Q3 GDP Forecast Holds Strong The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow "nowcast" for third-quarter economic growth remained unchanged at a robust 3.9%.
YOUR WEEKLY FORECAST
Monday, Nov 3
Data: S&P Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Index
Summary: Manufacturing shows stabilization in output but softness in new orders.
Investor Take:
- ISM above 50 favors industrials ($XLI) and small caps ($IWM).
- Sub-50 keeps the disinflation narrative alive.
Tuesday, Nov 4
Data: U.S. Trade Balance, Factory Orders
Summary: Tuesday provides a look at U.S. global trade dynamics and domestic manufacturing demand. The trade balance impacts GDP calculations, while factory orders show the health of the industrial order pipeline.
Investor Take:
- A widening trade deficit could be a drag on Q4 GDP, while a narrowing deficit could provide a boost.
- Strong factory orders suggest business confidence and investment, favoring industrial and materials sectors ($XLI). Weak data may signal a slowdown.
Wednesday, Nov 5
Data: ADP Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, MBA Mortgage Applications, EIA Crude Oil Inventories.
Summary: A crucial look at the services side of the economy, which represents the majority of U.S. economic activity. ADP also gives an important preview of Friday's official jobs report.
Investor Take:
- The ISM Services reading is the main event; a strong number (above 50) signals economic resilience and supports consumer-focused sectors ($XLY, $XLC).
- A high ADP number could raise expectations for a strong jobs report.
Thursday, Nov 6
Data: Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims, Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, Wholesale Inventories
Summary: Today's data focuses on the labor market's tightness and its inflationary impact. Jobless claims provide a real-time pulse on layoffs, while Unit Labor Costs show how much (or how little) wage pressure is building.
Investor Take:
- A sharp rise in Unit Labor Costs would be inflationary and could pressure the Fed to remain hawkish, weighing on growth stocks ($QQQ).
- Continuously low jobless claims signal a tight labor market, reinforcing the "higher for longer" interest rate narrative.
Friday, Nov 7
Data: Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment , Consumer Credit
Summary: The most important day of the month. The official jobs report will set the market tone, confirming or denying the narrative from Wednesday's ADP. The "soft" data from UMich shows if the consumer feels confident, while Consumer Credit shows if they are acting on that confidence by borrowing.
Investor Take:
- A "Goldilocks" report (modest job growth, cooling wage inflation) would be bullish for all assets ($SPY).
- A surprisingly hot report (strong job/wage growth) would send bond yields higher and hit rate-sensitive stocks, as it would take Fed rate cuts off the table.
HALAL STOCK SPOTLIGHT*
Thanks to feedback from some of our readers, we’ll be switching back to the old format of deep-diving on one stock instead of listing off a full watchlist.
All stocks are screened for sharia-compliance on Musaffa. We also exclude companies in the following three databases: WhoProfits.org, The Official BDS Targets, The American Friends Service Committee Database
ANET
Analysts are re-evaluating Arista Networks as it capitalizes on high demand for AI and cloud networking, resulting in a slight increase to its fair value estimate.
1. Strong Execution and Upgraded Guidance
The primary bullish driver is Arista's consistent execution and momentum across its AI, cloud, and enterprise segments. This led Arista to raise its 2025 annual revenue growth guidance to 25%, prompting multiple analyst firms to increase their price targets, some as high as $185.
2. Key Position in AI Networking
Arista has strengthened its competitive position by introducing its next-generation R4 Series platforms. These are specifically designed to accelerate distributed AI workloads and meet the high-performance demands of modern data centers, positioning the company to capture a key part of the AI infrastructure buildout.
3. Valuation and Margin Concerns
The main bearish argument centers on valuation and future profitability. Some analysts caution that the stock's recent strong performance may have already priced in much of the good news, and note that the company's own guidance suggests operating margins in 2026 and beyond could be lower than in previous years.
*READ OUR DISCLAIMER AT THE BOTTOM OF THE NEWSLETTER BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENTS
MOVERS & SHAKERS
Junaid Wahedna and the 'Cloning' Strategy
Junaid Wahedna, founder of Wahed Invest, didn't need to invent a revolutionary technology to build a FinTech powerhouse that now manages hundreds of millions. He just had to look at a successful model—the automated robo-advisor (like Betterment or Wealthfront)—and identify the massive, high-value community it was ignoring: observant Muslims. His strategy was to clone, customize, and capture. He cloned the proven tech and business model, customized it with a Shariah-compliant screening layer, and launched a marketing campaign that spoke with perfect cultural fluency to a global Muslim audience. His advantage wasn't a better algorithm; it was better empathy for a niche the incumbents were too lazy to serve. The takeaway is simple: Innovation isn't always invention; it's often just smart translation. Find a successful secular business model and be the first to apply it to a high-trust, underserved community.
Read more about him here
MONEY TALKS
Q: I'm planning my year-end charitable giving. How can I be more strategic with my Zakat and Sadaqa than just writing a check?
The single most effective strategy for professionals with investment portfolios is donating appreciated stock directly to charity. Let's say you bought a stock for $2,000 and it's now worth $10,000. If you sell it, you'll owe capital gains tax on the $8,000 profit. But if you donate the stock directly to a registered charity, two amazing things happen:
You (and the charity) pay zero capital gains tax.
You get to deduct the full fair market value of the donation ($10,000) on your taxes.
It's a powerful win-win. You can facilitate this through your brokerage or a Donor-Advised Fund (DAF), which acts like a charitable investment account. You donate the stock to your DAF for an immediate tax deduction, and then you can recommend grants from the fund to your favorite causes over time. It’s the sharpest way to fulfill your obligations and be a steward of your wealth.
In today’s world, who you know is becoming more important than what you know. Join the largest online community of Muslim professionals in North America at muslimprofessionals.us.
That's all for this week. Make it a great one.
How did you like this week's issue?
IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMER
Please read this disclaimer carefully before proceeding. By reading and using the information provided in this newsletter, you acknowledge and agree to the terms outlined below.
1. Not Financial or Investment Advice The content provided in this newsletter, including all articles, market analysis, economic news, stock picks, trading plans (including entry prices, stop losses, price targets), catalysts, and risk assessments, is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be construed as financial, investment, tax, legal, or any other form of professional advice. No fiduciary relationship is created by your subscription to or use of this newsletter.
2. Consult a Professional Advisor The author(s) and publisher of this newsletter are not licensed financial advisors, registered investment advisers, or broker-dealers. You should not make any investment decision based solely on the information presented here. It is imperative that you consult with a qualified and licensed financial professional to determine if a particular investment or strategy is suitable for your individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.
3. Inherent Risk of Investing All forms of investing carry significant risk. The stock market is volatile, and you may lose some or all of your invested capital. There is no guarantee that any of the strategies or stock picks discussed will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
4. No Guarantee of Accuracy or Completeness While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, we make no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, adequacy, validity, reliability, availability, or completeness of any information in this newsletter. We are not liable for any errors, omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All information is provided on an "as-is" basis.
5. Disclaimer on "Halal" and Shariah Compliance The term "halal stock picks" refers to securities that have been screened against certain publicly available, third-party Shariah-compliance criteria at the time of publication. These standards can vary among different scholars, organizations, and screening services. The Shariah-compliant status of a company can change over time. We make no guarantee or warranty as to the Shariah-compliant status of any security mentioned. It is your sole responsibility to conduct your own due diligence and consult with your own qualified religious scholar to determine if an investment aligns with your personal Islamic principles.
6. Separation from Muslim Professionals of the Americas This newsletter is an independent publication. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed herein belong solely to the author(s) of the newsletter and do not represent the views, policies, or official positions of the nonprofit organization Muslim Professionals of the Americas, its board of directors, officers, or members. Muslim Professionals of the Americas is a separate legal entity and assumes absolutely no liability or responsibility for the content of this newsletter, any financial losses, or any other damages incurred from its use.
7. Personal Holdings The author(s) of this newsletter may, from time to time, hold positions in the securities mentioned herein. The presentation of any stock is not a solicitation or direct recommendation to buy or sell that security.
