Your Weekly Forecast Scorecard: The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting, with Chair Powell maintaining his "wait and see" approach despite intense political pressure. Q2 GDP was stronger than expected at 3% annualized growth, beating economists' 2.5% forecast. Friday's jobs report wasn't just disappointing; it rewrote recent economic history entirely. There will be more about that later.

Trump's Tariff Tsunami: President Trump escalated his trade war this week, raising steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs to 50% and introducing a 25% tariff on imported cars from most countries. The cumulative impact of Trump's tariffs now amounts to an average tax increase of nearly $1,300 per US household in 2025, transforming what began as targeted trade measures into a broad-based consumption tax.

Jobs Data Catastrophe: July's employment report delivered the shock of the year: only 73,000 jobs added versus expectations, but more dramatically, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down May and June employment by a combined 258,000 jobs. The adjustments showed that 33,000 jobs were added in May and June combined, compared to the 291,000 originally reported. This marked the steepest two-month downward revision on record outside the pandemic, erasing most of the job growth initially reported for those months. President Trump's response was swift and unprecedented: he fired BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer within hours of the report's release, citing concerns over data accuracy and referencing last year's 818,000 job revision as evidence of systemic problems.

SEC Announces “Project Crypto”: In a stunning reversal of federal policy, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has officially abandoned its adversarial views toward cryptocurrency. SEC Chair Paul Atkins unveiled the landmark declaration that "the majority of crypto assets are not securities"—a statement that single-handedly unwinds years of regulatory ambiguity that has stifled the industry. Project Crypto will slash regulatory red tape by allowing crypto exchanges to operate trading, staking, and lending services under a single license. The SEC is also giving a green light to tokenizing real-world assets like stocks and funds, paving the way for a long-anticipated merger of traditional and digital finance.

Factory Orders Monday: Monday kicks off the week with Factory Orders from the Commerce Department—a straightforward report showing whether American manufacturers are getting more or fewer orders for their products. This includes everything from aircraft and machinery to computers and appliances. Strong factory orders suggest businesses expect continued demand, which typically translates to stable employment and potential expansion. Weak orders often foreshadow budget cuts, project delays, and hiring freezes that eventually ripple through the economy, affecting everyone from consultants to accountants to marketing professionals.

The Real Economy Gets Its Report Card: Tuesday brings the Institute for Supply Management's Services Index for July—think of it a monthly health check for restaurants, banks, hospitals, consulting firms, and every other business that doesn't make physical products. This matters because services comprise 80% of the American economy and employ most professionals. The index works like a test score: anything above 50 means the sector is growing, below 50 means it's shrinking. June's reading was barely passing at 50.8.

The Tariff Bill Comes Due: The government releases June trade numbers on Tuesday, showing how much America bought from other countries versus how much we sold to them. With ongoing trade wars and tariffs, these numbers reveal whether Americans are paying more for everything from smartphones to steel. Recent months have been messy because companies rushed to import goods before tariffs kicked in, creating artificial spikes and drops that made the data hard to read.

Forget the flashy tech founders for a moment and consider a different kind of power—the kind that operates in the boardrooms where empires are bought and sold. Faiza J. Saeed wields that power as the Presiding Partner of Cravath, Swaine & Moore, arguably the most elite and influential corporate law firm in the world. As the first woman to lead the 200-year-old institution, she’s orchestrating the multi-billion-dollar deals that define modern capitalism. Her advisory work reads like a 'who's who' of corporate history, including masterminding transactions like Disney’s $71.3 billion acquisition of 21st Century Fox and advising Johnson & Johnson on its complex corporate restructuring. Saeed’s financial impact is measured in the hundreds of billions of dollars in M&A value she oversees, making her one of the most formidable and respected figures on Wall Street. She is a masterclass in how intellectual rigor and strategic acumen can be the ultimate currency.

Read more about Faiza and her accomplishments on Cravath’s website

Many of the companies in the S&P 500 do not meet Shariah compliance standards. According to Zoya Finance, about 272 companies in the S&P 500 qualify as non-compliant, comprising over half of the index.

Common non-compliant sectors include financial services, which rely heavily on interest-based income, as well as industries like alcohol, gambling, firearms, tobacco, and others involved in haram activities. As a result, the S&P 500 as a whole cannot be considered Shariah-compliant. However, there are halal alternatives like the SP Funds S&P 500 Shariah Industry Exclusions ETF (SPUS) and Wahed FTSE USA Shariah ETF (HLAL).

Read more on Zoya Finance’s blog post on the S&P 500.

That's all for this week. Make it a great one.