A Personal Update: In February, I am transitioning from only writing about wealth to actively managing it as a Registered Investment Advisor Representative. I am currently opening a "First Access" list for subscribers interested in professional Halal portfolio management and tax planning. If you want to be notified first when my books open, simply reply "Waitlist" to this email.
LAST WEEK IN REVIEW
Fed Chair Powell Defies Legal Threats from DOJ Chair Jerome Powell disclosed that the Department of Justice served the Fed with grand jury subpoenas regarding building renovations, a move he characterized as a pretext to force interest rate cuts. This unprecedented escalation threatens the central bank's independence; if markets believe monetary policy is becoming politicized, expect long-term bond yields to rise as investors demand a premium for inflation risk.
Tariff Wars Expand: Europe and Iran Targeted The administration announced immediate 25% tariffs on any nation trading with Iran and threatened new duties on eight European countries (including the UK, France, and Germany) over the Greenland dispute. This is a significant expansion of trade friction that could spike costs for imported goods; the EU is preparing retaliatory measures, raising the risk of a tit-for-tat cycle that disrupts global supply chains and increases consumer prices.
Mortgage Rates Hit 3-Year Low on Government Intervention The 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.06% after the President ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds, triggering a 40% surge in refinance applications. This is a massive, artificial liquidity injection designed to lower housing costs; homeowners should check immediately if refinancing makes sense, though increased buyer demand could paradoxically push home prices higher.
Inflation Signals Diverge Consumer prices (CPI) cooled slightly with core inflation dipping to 2.6%, but wholesale prices (PPI) jumped to 3.0%, the hottest reading since July. Rising wholesale costs often trickle down to consumers eventually, complicating the case for the aggressive rate cuts that the White House is demanding.
Housing Market Sees Activity Spike Existing home sales jumped 5.1% in October, defying expectations, while new home sales held steady. The housing market is proving incredibly resilient; even before the recent drop in mortgage rates, buyers were returning, suggesting that any further rate relief will likely result in higher property values rather than improved affordability.
YOUR WEEKLY FORECAST
Tuesday, January 20
Data:
- Supreme Court Rulings (Possible Decision on Tariffs)
- Markets Reopen after Holiday
The Advisor's Take: Traders return from the long weekend facing a massive potential catalyst out of Washington. The Supreme Court is scheduled to issue rulings today, and the docket includes the legality of President Trump's global tariffs.
The Trade Risk: Tariffs are historically inflationary and can squeeze corporate margins. If the Court upholds the tariffs, expect volatility in importers and retailers ($XRT ( ▲ 0.18% )), as costs may rise. Conversely, if the tariffs are blocked or limited, it could spark a relief rally in multinational large-caps ($SPY ( ▼ 0.85% )) that rely on smooth global trade.
Sector Watch: Keep an eye on Small Caps ($IWM ( ▲ 0.23% )). Domestic-focused companies often outperform during trade wars, but broad market uncertainty tends to hit them hard initially.
Wednesday, January 21
Data:
- Housing Starts & Building Permits
- Pending Home Sales
- MBA Mortgage Applications Index
- Construction Spending
The Advisor's Take: Due to the Monday holiday, a week's worth of housing data is compressed into Wednesday. This is a definitive "health check" for the real estate market.
Builder Confidence: We look at Housing Starts (breaking ground on new homes) vs. Permits (intention to build). If Permits outpace Starts, it suggests builders are hesitant to commit capital, likely due to rate uncertainty. This would be bearish for Homebuilders ($XHB ( ▲ 2.26% )).
Demand Pulse: MBA Mortgage Applications will tell us if buyers are stepping in at current rate levels. Weak applications combined with high inventory would suggest home prices have further to fall ($XLRE ( ▼ 0.37% )).
Thursday, January 22
Data:
- PCE Prices (Personal Consumption Expenditures)
- Personal Income & Personal Spending
- Q3 GDP – Revised
- Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
- EIA Energy Inventories
The Advisor's Take: This is the most critical economic day of the month.
The Fed’s Number: PCE is the inflation metric the Federal Reserve uses for its 2% target. If the "Core PCE" number comes in hot, it mathematically reduces the odds of a near-term rate cut. Bond yields ($TLT ( ▲ 0.24% )) would likely spike, putting immediate pressure on Tech ($QQQ ( ▼ 1.54% )).
The Consumer: We also get Personal Income vs. Spending. Ideally, you want to see Income rising faster than Spending. If Spending is up but Income is flat, it means consumers are burning savings or using credit cards to stay afloat—a sustainability risk for the economy.
Friday, January 23
Data:
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
The Advisor's Take: We wrap the week by seeing how the average American is feeling about their wallet.
Inflation Expectations: Inside this report is a sub-index called "5-Year Inflation Expectations." The Fed watches this like a hawk. If consumers believe inflation will stay high long-term, it often becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. A drop here would be bullish for bonds and stocks alike.
The "Vibe" Check: If sentiment rises despite headline risks (like tariffs), it suggests the consumer is resilient, boding well for Discretionary stocks ($XLY ( ▼ 0.8% )) heading into the spring.
HALAL STOCK SPOTLIGHT*
All stocks are screened for sharia-compliance on Zoya. We also exclude companies in the following three databases: WhoProfits.org, The Official BDS Targets, The American Friends Service Committee Database
Abbott Laboratories ($ABT ( ▼ 0.36% ))
The Business Model Abbott Laboratories operates as a diversified healthcare company, generating revenue through the global sale of medical devices, diagnostic systems, nutritional products, and established branded pharmaceuticals.
The Bull Case Bulls highlight the company's strong momentum in medical devices and the recent dismissal of infant formula litigation as catalysts that reduce uncertainty and refocus attention on core growth. Further optimism stems from the potential strategic expansion into cancer testing via the Exact Sciences acquisition and a reliable history of capital returns, evidenced by 54 consecutive years of dividend growth.
The Bear Case Risks include "lumpiness" in non-device segment performance and skepticism regarding the financial logic of the proposed Exact Sciences acquisition, specifically whether the takeover premium will erode value for Abbott shareholders. Bears also caution that high market expectations create a high hurdle for execution, where simply meeting targets may not be enough to drive share price appreciation.
While analyzing individual stocks like Abbott Laboratories is valuable, true wealth preservation comes from a diversified, compliant strategy, not just picking winners. If you want to build a holistic portfolio rather than just chasing single tickers, reply "Portfolio" to see how I can help.
*Please read the disclaimer at the end of this email before forming any opinions on the stock.
MONEY TALKS
The "Zakat Supercharger" You Aren't Using
Most people pay their Zakat or Sadaqah by writing a check or swiping a credit card. While the intention is pure, the financial execution is inefficient.
Introducing the Donor-Advised Fund (DAF).
Think of a DAF as a dedicated charitable investment account. Instead of donating cash, you donate appreciating assets (like stocks or crypto that can go up in value).
Eliminate Capital Gains: You transfer the asset directly to the DAF, meaning you never sell it, so you pay $0 in capital gains tax.
Immediate Deduction: You get the full tax deduction for the current market value of the asset in the year you make the transfer.
Give on Your Schedule: The money stays in the fund until you decide which charities to support—whether that’s next month or next year.
Once the money is in the DAF, it doesn't just sit there—it gets invested so your charitable impact can grow over time. Unfortunately, the default investment menus at major brokerages are often stuffed with interest-bearing bond funds or non-compliant "growth" pools. If your Zakat money is earning interest while it sits in the account, it defeats the spiritual purpose.
This is where wealth management firms come in. They can help you set up and manage DAFs that utilize strictly Sharia-compliant investments. Professionals can also help better assess the potential tax-advantages of utilizing these types of accounts.
If you want to see how a DAF fits into your overall Halal portfolio, reply “DAF” to this email.
In today’s world, who you know is becoming more important than what you know. Join the largest online community of Muslim professionals in North America at muslimprofessionals.us.
That's all for this week. Make it a great one.
IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMER*
Please read this disclaimer carefully before proceeding. By reading and using the information provided in this newsletter, you acknowledge and agree to the terms outlined below.
1. Not Financial or Investment Advice The content provided in this newsletter, including all articles, market analysis, economic news, stock picks, trading plans (including entry prices, stop losses, price targets), catalysts, and risk assessments, is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be construed as financial, investment, tax, legal, or any other form of professional advice. No fiduciary relationship is created by your subscription to or use of this newsletter.
2. Consult a Professional Advisor The author(s) and publisher of this newsletter are not licensed financial advisors, registered investment advisers, or broker-dealers. You should not make any investment decision based solely on the information presented here. It is imperative that you consult with a qualified and licensed financial professional to determine if a particular investment or strategy is suitable for your individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.
3. Inherent Risk of Investing All forms of investing carry significant risk. The stock market is volatile, and you may lose some or all of your invested capital. There is no guarantee that any of the strategies or stock picks discussed will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
4. No Guarantee of Accuracy or Completeness While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, we make no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, adequacy, validity, reliability, availability, or completeness of any information in this newsletter. We are not liable for any errors, omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All information is provided on an "as-is" basis.
5. Disclaimer on "Halal" and Shariah Compliance The term "halal stock picks" refers to securities that have been screened against certain publicly available, third-party Shariah-compliance criteria at the time of publication. These standards can vary among different scholars, organizations, and screening services. The Shariah-compliant status of a company can change over time. We make no guarantee or warranty as to the Shariah-compliant status of any security mentioned. It is your sole responsibility to conduct your own due diligence and consult with your own qualified religious scholar to determine if an investment aligns with your personal Islamic principles.
6. Separation from Muslim Professionals of the Americas This newsletter is an independent publication. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed herein belong solely to the author(s) of the newsletter and do not represent the views, policies, or official positions of the nonprofit organization Muslim Professionals of the Americas, its board of directors, officers, or members. Muslim Professionals of the Americas is a separate legal entity and assumes absolutely no liability or responsibility for the content of this newsletter, any financial losses, or any other damages incurred from its use.
7. Personal Holdings The author(s) of this newsletter may, from time to time, hold positions in the securities mentioned herein. The presentation of any stock is not a solicitation or direct recommendation to buy or sell that security.
