LAST WEEK IN REVIEW
Precious Metals Enter "Mania" Phase Gold shattered the psychological $4,500 barrier, and silver soared past $70/oz, capping a year where it gained nearly 150%. Central banks are hoarding metal to diversify away from the dollar, and private investors are chasing momentum.
4.3% GDP Growth Crushes Estimates The US economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% in Q3, blowing past the 3.2% consensus estimate and marking the strongest expansion in two years. This growth was driven by robust consumer spending and a rush to import goods before new tariffs hit. However, this strength complicates the Fed's job; aggressive rate cuts into a booming economy risk reigniting inflation.
Manufacturing Orders Drop Headline durable goods orders fell -2.2% in October, missing the -1.2% estimate. The drop was largely due to volatile transportation orders (likely aircraft); "core" orders (ex-transportation) actually rose 0.2%, suggesting business investment remains stable despite tariff anxiety.
Labor Market Tightens Unexpectedly Initial jobless claims dropped to 214,000 for the week ending Dec. 20, beating the forecast of 224,000. Despite high-profile layoff announcements, businesses are hoarding talent. A tight labor market supports wage growth but will keep services inflation "sticky," potentially forcing the Fed to slow its rate-cut pace in 2026.
Consumer Sentiment Disconnect Deepens Consumer confidence fell to 89.1 in December, from 92.9 in November. While GDP and jobs are strong, households feel poorer due to the cumulative effect of high price levels and tariff headlines. This sentiment gap suggests spending could abruptly slow if the labor market cracks.
YOUR WEEKLY FORECAST
Tuesday, December 30
Data:
- FOMC Meeting Minutes
The Advisor's Take: While the Federal Reserve announced their actual interest rate decision back on December 10, today we get the "Minutes"—essentially the detailed transcript of that meeting. Investors will be parsing the text for the word "dissension." If many Fed officials argued for a different path than the one taken, it suggests the Fed is divided on inflation, which creates uncertainty. In a holiday-thinned market, algorithmic trading programs often react instantly to specific keywords in the report. If the tone reads as "hawkish" (worried about inflation staying high), expect a quick dip in bonds ($TLT) and potentially tech stocks ($QQQ) as traders adjust their expectations for 2026 rate cuts.
Wednesday, December 31
Data:
- Initial Jobless Claims
The Advisor's Take: A "low" number (typically under 220k) confirms that companies are holding onto workers despite economic headwinds. As this is the final trading day of the year, volume will be incredibly low. This creates a risk of "window dressing," where fund managers buy winning stocks ($SPY) at the last minute to show them on their year-end reports. However, if Jobless Claims spike unexpectedly, the lack of liquidity could exaggerate a sell-off, ending the year on a sour note.
Market Holiday Schedule
Thursday, Jan 1 (New Year's Day): Markets CLOSED.
Friday, Jan 2: Markets reopen for the first trading day of 2026.
HALAL STOCK SPOTLIGHT*
All stocks are screened for sharia-compliance on Zoya. We also exclude companies in the following three databases: WhoProfits.org, The Official BDS Targets, The American Friends Service Committee Database
Salesforce, Inc. ($CRM ( ▼ 0.38% ))
The Business Model Salesforce provides cloud-based Customer Relationship Management (CRM) software and applications, generating revenue primarily through subscription fees for its integrated suite of services, including Sales Cloud, Service Cloud, Marketing Cloud, and Slack.
The Bull Case Bulls argue that the global launch of "Agentforce 360" and strategic AI alliances position the company to capture significant value as enterprises move from AI experimentation to budgeted deployments. Further optimism is driven by the belief that its mission-critical role in front-office operations will sustain revenue growth in the high single to low double digits, shielding it from churn even as competitive dynamics evolve.
The Bear Case Risks include intensifying competition from AI-native marketing tools and focused customer engagement platforms, which may force aggressive reinvestment and pressure long-term profit margins. Additionally, bearish sentiment is weighed down by recent security incidents involving client data and concerns that the company could lose market share to next-generation platforms better optimized for Gen AI workflows.
*Please read the disclaimer at the end of this email before forming any opinions on the stock.
MONEY TALKS
Q: I'm hearing about "Tax-Loss Harvesting" to lower my tax bill. Is this some sort of deception, or is it halal?
It sounds sketchy—selling a losing stock just to record a loss for the IRS, only to buy a similar asset later—but it is completely permissible. In Islam, there is a clear distinction between tax evasion (lying about your income, which is haram because it breaks the law of the land and your contract with the state) and tax avoidance (using legal mechanisms to lower your liability).
Tax-loss harvesting is a legal strategy. You are genuinely selling the asset and taking a real market risk by being out of that position for a period of time (specifically, you must mind the secular "Wash Sale Rule," which usually requires you to stay out of that specific stock for 30 days). It's not deception; it's being smart. The Shariah does not require you to pay more taxes than legally necessary. If you can legally reduce your tax bill, that leaves you with more capital for your family, your investments, and your Sadaqah.
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That's all for this week. Make it a great one.
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IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMER*
Please read this disclaimer carefully before proceeding. By reading and using the information provided in this newsletter, you acknowledge and agree to the terms outlined below.
1. Not Financial or Investment Advice The content provided in this newsletter, including all articles, market analysis, economic news, stock picks, trading plans (including entry prices, stop losses, price targets), catalysts, and risk assessments, is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be construed as financial, investment, tax, legal, or any other form of professional advice. No fiduciary relationship is created by your subscription to or use of this newsletter.
2. Consult a Professional Advisor The author(s) and publisher of this newsletter are not licensed financial advisors, registered investment advisers, or broker-dealers. You should not make any investment decision based solely on the information presented here. It is imperative that you consult with a qualified and licensed financial professional to determine if a particular investment or strategy is suitable for your individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.
3. Inherent Risk of Investing All forms of investing carry significant risk. The stock market is volatile, and you may lose some or all of your invested capital. There is no guarantee that any of the strategies or stock picks discussed will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
4. No Guarantee of Accuracy or Completeness While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, we make no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, adequacy, validity, reliability, availability, or completeness of any information in this newsletter. We are not liable for any errors, omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All information is provided on an "as-is" basis.
5. Disclaimer on "Halal" and Shariah Compliance The term "halal stock picks" refers to securities that have been screened against certain publicly available, third-party Shariah-compliance criteria at the time of publication. These standards can vary among different scholars, organizations, and screening services. The Shariah-compliant status of a company can change over time. We make no guarantee or warranty as to the Shariah-compliant status of any security mentioned. It is your sole responsibility to conduct your own due diligence and consult with your own qualified religious scholar to determine if an investment aligns with your personal Islamic principles.
6. Separation from Muslim Professionals of the Americas This newsletter is an independent publication. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed herein belong solely to the author(s) of the newsletter and do not represent the views, policies, or official positions of the nonprofit organization Muslim Professionals of the Americas, its board of directors, officers, or members. Muslim Professionals of the Americas is a separate legal entity and assumes absolutely no liability or responsibility for the content of this newsletter, any financial losses, or any other damages incurred from its use.
7. Personal Holdings The author(s) of this newsletter may, from time to time, hold positions in the securities mentioned herein. The presentation of any stock is not a solicitation or direct recommendation to buy or sell that security.
