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Disclaimer: Advisory services are offered through Nama Private Wealth, a DBA of Forefront Advisor Network. Forefront Wealth Partners, LLC (“FWP”) is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. All views, expressions, and opinions included in this communication are subject to change. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any financial instrument or investment advisory services. Any information provided has been obtained from sources considered reliable, but we do not guarantee the accuracy or the completeness of any description of securities, markets or developments mentioned.
LAST WEEK IN REVIEW
Government Shuts Down: The US government officially shut down Tuesday, halting the release of critical economic reports. The Federal Reserve relies on this data to set interest rates, and a prolonged data blackout increases the risk of a policy misstep as it navigates both a weakening job market and persistent inflation.
Hiring Plans Sink to 15-Year Low: The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report revealed that year-to-date hiring plans have dropped to their lowest level since 2009. This is a sign that businesses are aggressively pulling back on expansion and bracing for a tougher economic environment ahead.
Private Sector Unexpectedly Sheds Jobs: The ADP employment report delivered a shock Wednesday, showing the private sector lost 32,000 jobs in September. This starkly missed expectations of a 50,000-job gain and serves as a major red flag that the labor market is weakening much faster than previously understood.
Job Market "Frozen" as Hiring Rate Stagnates: The official Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed the hiring rate fell to 3.2% in August, an anemic level not consistently seen since the Great Recession. The data points to a stagnant labor market where workers lack the confidence or opportunity to find new roles.
Americans' Stock Exposure Hits All-Time High: A record 45% of US household financial assets are now in stocks, surpassing even the dot-com bubble peak. This makes households more vulnerable than ever to a market downturn, which could crush consumer spending and trigger a broader economic slowdown.
Surprise Jump in Home Contract Signings: Pending home sales unexpectedly jumped 4% in August, a sign that a recent dip in mortgage rates is luring some buyers back. This offers a rare glimmer of hope that the housing market, which has been in a deep slump, may be starting to find a bottom.
New Tariffs on Lumber, Furniture, and Pharma: The administration announced a new wave of tariffs, including 10% on softwood lumber and 25% on certain furniture. This move will increase costs for homebuilders and consumers, adding another layer of inflationary pressure to the economy.
YOUR WEEKLY FORECAST
Tuesday, October 7th:
Consumer Credit: This report tracks the expansion of consumer debt (e.g., credit cards, auto loans), revealing whether households are confident enough to borrow and spend.
Trade Balance: This measures the difference between U.S. exports and imports; a widening deficit can be a drag on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), our broadest measure of economic health.
Wednesday, October 8th:
MBA Mortgage Applications: This is a forward-looking indicator for the housing market, as rising applications point to future home sales and construction activity.
EIA Crude Oil Inventories: The level of crude oil supply directly influences prices at the gas pump for consumers and transportation costs for nearly every business.
Thursday, October 9th:
Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims: This is the most timely snapshot of the labor market's health, tracking how many Americans are filing for or receiving unemployment benefits each week.
Wholesale Inventories: This data reveals how much product is sitting in warehouses, offering clues about whether businesses are expecting consumer demand to rise or fall.
Friday, October 10th:
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: This survey provides a crucial look at the mood of the American consumer; since consumer spending drives nearly 70% of the economy, sentiment is a strong predictor of future growth.
Treasury Budget: This reveals the U.S. government's monthly surplus or deficit, providing insight into the nation's fiscal health and potential future borrowing needs.
THE HALAL STOCK SPOTLIGHT*
SHOP
Shopify's stock recently hit a new 52-week high after TD Cowen raised its price target to $156. While the firm acknowledges strong business momentum, it maintains a "Hold" rating, suggesting the company's high valuation already reflects its positive outlook.
Exceptional European Growth
A primary driver of optimism is Shopify's outstanding performance in Europe. The platform's gross merchandise volume (GMV) in the region grew by an impressive 42% in the second quarter, signaling significant market share gains with ample room for continued expansion.
Strategic AI Partnership
Shopify's forward-looking strategy is bolstered by its exclusive partnership with OpenAI. This deal integrates over 1 million Shopify merchants into ChatGPT’s “Instant Checkout” feature, positioning the company to capitalize on the growing trend of AI-driven commerce.
Valuation and High Expectations
Despite the positive drivers, analysts express some caution due to the stock's high valuation. The current price already reflects lofty investor expectations for nearly 25% annual revenue growth through 2033. TD Cowen suggests that even if Shopify achieves this, the stock is only fairly valued at its current level, limiting near-term upside.
*This is not a recommendation to buy/sell any asset. Halal status is as determined by AAOIFI standards and is subject to change after the time of writing this publication
MOVERS & SHAKERS
Sal Khan and the Mastery Loop
Sal Khan didn't just build Khan Academy into a global education powerhouse that has delivered over 2 billion lessons for free; he staged a quiet rebellion against the very foundation of how we learn. His strategic genius was to replace the industrial-era model of "seat time" with a simple, powerful concept: mastery-based learning. On his platform, you can't progress by simply getting a passing 'C' grade. Instead, you must prove you understand a concept by correctly answering a string of questions in a row. This creates a "mastery loop"—a system where progress is gated by genuine proficiency, not by the clock on the wall. The actionable insight is a profound upgrade to any professional development: Stop measuring growth in hours spent and start measuring it in skills mastered. Whether you're onboarding a new hire or learning a new software, define what true proficiency looks like and don't move on until you've hit it.
Read more about him here
THE HALAL HUSTLE
Q: My company’s 401(k) is full of non-compliant funds. Do I just opt out of retirement savings?
Absolutely not. Opting out of your 401(k) is like turning down free money, and it's one of the most powerful wealth-building tools available. Navigating a sub-optimal plan requires a clear strategy, not abandonment. Here’s the widely accepted four-step approach:
Capture the Match: Contribute enough to your 401(k) to get the full employer match. This is part of your compensation package, and the immediate 50% or 100% return is too valuable to ignore.
Pick the "Best Available": Within your limited 401(k) options, choose the fund with the least exposure to impermissible industries and debt. This is often an ESG or Socially Responsible fund, as it tends to screen out some of the worst offenders like weapons and tobacco. Some employers allow you to pick your own investments from scratch in which case you can skip to step 4; always check.
Purify Regularly: Since this fund won't be fully compliant, you have a religious obligation to annually purify the dividends and growth from its impermissible holdings. Keep good records.
Maximize a Halal IRA: For any retirement savings beyond the employer match, open a self-directed retirement account (like a Roth or Traditional IRA). This gives you total freedom to invest in fully Shariah-compliant assets, like halal ETFs (HLAL, SPUS) and stocks. Max this out before contributing more to your suboptimal 401(k).
MONEY TALKS
It’s October, which means your inbox is flooded with open enrollment emails from HR. It’s tempting to just click “renew my current elections” and get on with your day.
But if you have young children and are paying for any kind of care, one specific benefit could save you thousands of dollars next year: the Dependent Care FSA (DCFSA).
Think of it as a special savings account just for childcare expenses. You contribute pre-tax money directly from your paycheck, and then use that tax-free cash to pay for the services you’re already using. Here's why it's a no-brainer:
It’s a Huge Tax Break: A family can contribute up to $5,000 per year, pre-tax. If your combined federal and state tax bracket is 30%, that’s an instant, real-dollar savings of $1,500.
It Covers More Than You Think: The DCFSA can be used for a huge range of services for children under 13, including daycare, preschool, nannies, after-school programs, and even summer day camps.
The Time to Act is Now: You can only enroll during your company’s Open Enrollment window for the upcoming year.
What If Your Company Doesn't Offer It?
If you search your benefits portal and the DCFSA is missing, don't just get frustrated. See it as an opportunity to advocate. The key is to send a polite, well-framed email to HR that positions this as a win for the company. Try something like this:
Subject: Inquiry about Employee Benefits - Dependent Care FSA
"As we're reviewing benefits during Open Enrollment, I was hoping to learn if the company has considered offering a Dependent Care FSA. This pre-tax benefit is incredibly valuable for supporting working parents, helping to reduce financial stress and improve focus at work. Given its low administrative cost and high impact on employee retention, it could be a powerful addition to our competitive benefits package. Any information you could share would be greatly appreciated."
You’re not just asking for yourself; you’re helping make your workplace better for every parent.
In today’s world, who you know is becoming more important than what you know. Join the largest online community of Muslim professionals in North America at muslimprofessionals.us.
That's all for this week. Make it a great one.
