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Your Weekly Forecast Scorecard: JOLTS data showed job openings barely budged at 7.2 million in July, while the critical quits rate remained flat at 2.0% - signaling workers lack confidence to leave voluntarily, a classic sign of labor market weakness. The Challenger Job Cuts report revealed August layoffs surging 39% to 85,979 - the highest August total since 2020, driven by pharmaceutical companies cutting 19,112 jobs and financial firms announcing 18,092 cuts. Most dramatically, Friday's jobs report confirmed concerns about employment stagnation: only 22,000 jobs added in August. Combined with June and July revisions removing another 21,000 jobs, the data painted a picture of an economy losing momentum exactly as labor market indicators predicted.

Stephen Miran's Independence Theater: Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran faced intense Senate questioning Thursday over his unprecedented plan to serve simultaneously as Fed Governor and White House Council of Economic Advisers Chair. This arrangement creates an impossible conflict: Miran would technically remain a presidential employee while supposedly making independent monetary policy decisions. Democratic senators highlighted the absurdity, with Senator Jack Reed noting "You're going to be technically an employee of the president of the United States, and an independent member of the board of the Federal Reserve. That's ridiculous."

Manufacturing's Tariff Reality: US manufacturing extended its contraction streak to six consecutive months in August, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI registering 48.7 - below the 50 threshold that separates growth from decline. While new orders showed signs of life at 51.4, production collapsed to 47.8, creating a dangerous dynamic where companies are receiving orders they cannot efficiently fulfill. One electrical equipment manufacturer reported raising prices 24% just to offset tariffs while cutting 15% of their workforce, including "high-paying and high-skilled roles" This contact warned that "with no stability in trade and economics, capital expenditures spending and hiring are frozen. It's survival."

The Big Picture: This week confirmed that the labor market has shifted from resilient to stagnant while manufacturing faces an extended contraction, all occurring as the administration continues dismantling the institutional independence that businesses rely on for predictable policy-making, creating a perfect storm of economic weakness and institutional uncertainty.

Producer Price Index Tuesday: Tuesday brings the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August—essentially the wholesale price report showing how much businesses pay for raw materials, components, and finished goods before they reach consumers. This measures inflation at the business level, often serving as an early indicator of what consumer prices will do in coming months. Recent data showed final demand producer prices rose 3.3% for the 12 months ended in July 2025, with ongoing concerns about tariff impacts on business costs.

Why It Matters: Think of PPI as your crystal ball for future consumer prices and business profit margins. When wholesale prices surge, companies either pass those costs to consumers through higher prices or absorb them through reduced profit. Rising producer prices often signal coming inflation that erodes purchasing power and may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher longer.

CPI Report Wednesday: Wednesday delivers the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August—the government's official scorecard for how much more expensive everyday life became last month. This tracks price changes for everything from groceries and gasoline to rent and healthcare. With tariff policies continuing to work through the economy and recent producer price pressures building, this report will reveal whether inflation is accelerating back toward problematic levels or remaining contained.

Why It Matters: CPI directly determines your cost of living and influences virtually every major economic decision in America. High inflation readings typically trigger Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, making borrowing more expensive for everything from credit cards to expansion loans. The report also reveals which sectors are seeing the biggest price increases, highlighting which industries might face consumer spending pressures.

University of Michigan Sentiment Friday: Friday brings the preliminary Consumer Sentiment report from the University of Michigan—a monthly survey asking about 500 Americans how they feel about current economic conditions and their financial future. Consumer sentiment decreased to 58.2 points in August from 61.7 points in July 2025, with year-ahead inflation expectations moving up from 4.5% to 4.8%. This reading provides crucial insight into whether consumers feel confident enough to keep spending despite ongoing economic uncertainties.

Why It Matters: Consumer sentiment predicts spending behavior better than almost any other indicator, and consumer spending drives about 70% of the U.S. economy. When people feel optimistic about their finances and job prospects, they open their wallets for everything from dining out to major purchases. When sentiment sours, they tighten their belts, which creates a ripple effect through retail, hospitality, and service industries.

Bank of America has significantly raised its price target for Broadcom to $400, reiterating its "Buy" rating. The primary driver for this optimism is the accelerating growth in Broadcom's custom AI chip business, highlighted by the addition of a major new customer.

1. Securing a New Major AI Customer

The main catalyst is Broadcom securing a fourth major client for its custom AI accelerators, widely reported to be OpenAI. This new partnership is a significant win, with the customer committing to over $10 billion in orders for AI hardware.

2. Dramatically Increased Growth Forecast

As a result of the new deal, Bank of America has nearly doubled its AI growth forecast for the company. Analysts now project Broadcom's AI-related revenue to grow by nearly 110% year-over-year in the second half of fiscal year 2026.

3. Strong Financial Performance and Discipline

Broadcom's solid financial health underpins the positive outlook, with the company recently surpassing its quarterly earnings expectations. Furthermore, BofA highlighted the firm's strategic focus on reducing debt, which creates strong potential for future earnings leverage.

Anyone can react to a headline, but luminaries like Dr. Mohamed El-Erian, the former CEO of PIMCO (which managed 2 trillion at its peak), make their name by anticipating the headlines to come. His widely respected economic commentary isn’t based on a secret algorithm, but on a disciplined strategy of framework thinking. While others see disparate events—an inflation report, a geopolitical flare-up, a tech innovation—El-Erian synthesizes them into a coherent model. He doesn't just collect data points; he builds the intellectual architecture to understand how they connect and what they will produce next. Stop consuming information and start building a framework. Your most powerful tool isn't just knowing what happened, but having a unique model that helps you predict what is likely to happen next.

Hear his thoughts about the Fed’s current strategy on CNBC

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That's all for this week. Make it a great one.