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*not all cryptocurrencies are halal, use screeners like this one before making any investments

Your Weekly Prediction Scorecard: The Consumer Price Index for July came in hotter than expected, with core inflation stripping out food and energy rising 0.3% between June and July - the largest gain in six months. Retail sales provided mixed signals, up 0.5% from the month prior, but missing the 0.6% increase analysts expected, showing consumers are still spending despite rising costs. Industrial production data rounded out the picture with a slight 0.1% decrease after a revised 0.4% increase in June. "The details behind the headline number in July weren't surprising," said Bernard Yaros, Lead US Economist at Oxford Economics. "Low oil prices are weighing on mining activity, while there was some payback in utilities after the prior month's strength. Manufacturing was flat, in line with earlier uninspiring data on hours worked in the sector."

Consumer Confidence Cracks: Consumer sentiment fell for the first time in four months as Americans grew increasingly pessimistic about inflation's trajectory. Year-ahead inflation expectations soared to 4.9% in August from 4.5% in July, according to the University of Michigan consumer survey, representing a psychological shift that could become self-fulfilling as businesses preemptively raise prices and workers demand higher wages. The share of consumers expecting unemployment to worsen jumped to about 60% - a reading last seen during the Great Recession, compared to just 32% in 2022.

Debt Milestone: The U.S. national debt surpassed $37 trillion this week, according to the Treasury Department, reaching this milestone years ahead of pre-pandemic projections that had debt hitting this level after fiscal year 2030. The pace is accelerating dramatically: "We are now adding a trillion more to the national debt every 5 months," according to the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, "more than twice as fast as the average rate over the last 25 years". The recent Republican tax cut and spending legislation signed by Trump is projected to add $4.1 trillion to the debt over the next decade.

The Big Picture: This week revealed a dangerous convergence where rising inflation expectations, deteriorating consumer confidence, and accelerating government debt are creating a perfect storm that could force the Federal Reserve into an impossible choice between fighting inflation and supporting a weakening economy.

Fed's Meeting Minutes Released Tuesday: Tuesday brings the Federal Reserve meeting minutes from their July 30th policy decision—essentially the transcript of what Fed officials were really thinking when they decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%. These minutes reveal the debates, concerns, and future thinking that don't make it into the official press release. Given the current economic crosscurrents of tariff pressures and mixed growth signals, these insights will be particularly valuable.

Why It Matters: While the July meeting decision was expected, the real value lies in understanding how worried Fed officials are about inflation returning and whether they're preparing for rate cuts or hikes ahead. If the minutes reveal growing concern about tariff-driven inflation, expect markets to price in fewer rate cuts, potentially cooling hiring and business investment. Conversely, if they show more worry about economic growth, it could signal easier monetary policy ahead.

Weekly Unemployment Claims Thursday: Thursday delivers the weekly unemployment claims report—the most timely snapshot of the American job market. This tracks both initial claims (people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time) and continuing claims (those still collecting benefits). Recent weeks have shown some volatility, making this reading crucial for understanding whether the labor market is stabilizing or showing early signs of stress.

Why It Matters: If claims start trending higher, it typically means companies are tightening belts and being more selective in hiring. Strong claims data usually supports continued consumer spending and business confidence, while weakness can foreshadow broader economic challenges that ripple through all industries.

Flash Business Activity Surveys Thursday: Thursday also brings the S&P Global Flash PMI reports for August—preliminary surveys that measure business activity in both manufacturing and services sectors. These reports survey purchasing managers at companies across America about new orders, production, employment, and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 signals contraction. July's data showed services remaining resilient while manufacturing faced headwinds from tariff disruptions.

Why It Matters: These surveys provide the most up-to-date read on business conditions across the economy, often revealing trends weeks before official government data. Strong PMI readings typically signal companies are expanding, hiring, and investing in growth. Weak readings often precede hiring freezes and budget cuts.

It’s easy to dismiss Huda Kattan’s $1.2 billion Huda Beauty empire as just another influencer success story, but that misses the genius of her strategy entirely. Long before she sold her first set of false eyelashes—famously launched with a $6,000 loan from her sister—she spent years building a digital community. Her blog was a non-commercial space dedicated solely to providing value: makeup tutorials, honest product reviews, and industry secrets. She built an audience that trusted her taste and expertise before she ever asked for a dollar. The product wasn’t the beginning; it was the monetization of a community that already existed, one that was hungry for a solution curated by its most trusted member. The principle is devastatingly simple yet criminally underutilized: Build your audience before you build your product. Whether you’re launching a SaaS startup or a consulting practice, cultivate your tribe with genuine value first, and they will not only be your first customers but also your most passionate evangelists.

Read more about Huda on Forbes.

You need a credit card for everything from renting a car to building a credit score, yet the entire business model is built on interest. The core issue for many scholars is the contract itself: by signing it, you are agreeing to a riba-based transaction, even if you never intend to pay a dime of interest.

However, a pragmatic view held by many jurists permits their use out of necessity (darurah), with a critical condition: you must have the discipline to pay the balance in full, on time, every single month without fail. If there's any doubt you can manage this, stay away.

Read more on this blog post by Islamic Finance Guru

You're likely ignoring the single most powerful wealth-building tool in the entire US tax code.

A Health Savings Account (HSA), when used correctly, is a supercharged investment account with a triple-tax advantage that no other account can match.

If you can afford it, pay for your current medical bills out-of-pocket and don't touch your HSA. Instead, invest the funds within it and treat it as a secret retirement account. After age 65, it acts just like a 401(k) for non-medical spending, and it always remains tax-free for healthcare.

This is the percentage of American adults who were raised Muslim and still identify as Muslim, the second highest retention rate among major U.S. religious groups. In an era of fractured consumer identities and fleeting trends, this signals a goldmine. The opportunities are in building for high lifetime value (LTV) for Muslims—think subscription services, family-focused tech, and wealth management for the next generation.

The Muslim American community is a uniquely stable and predictable consumer base. The question is, is your strategy built for a single transaction or for a lifetime of loyalty?

Read more in Pew Research Center's report here.

In today’s world, who you know is becoming more important than what you know. Join the largest online community of Muslim professionals in North America at muslimprofessionals.us.

That's all for this week. Make it a great one.