Data:
- Empire State Manufacturing Index

The Advisor's Take: We start the week with a check-up on the manufacturing sector in the New York region. This index is often viewed as a leading indicator for the broader economy. A reading above zero indicates expansion; below indicates contraction. Investors will be watching to see if manufacturing is stabilizing. A surprisingly weak number could signal slowing growth, potentially weighing on industrial stocks ($XLI ( ▲ 0.82% )), while a strong print might bolster the "soft landing" narrative.

Data:
- Building Permits
- Housing Starts
- Import/Export Prices

The Advisor's Take: This is a significant day for the "real" economy. Housing Starts and Building Permits tell us if developers are confident enough to break ground on new projects despite current interest rate levels. Meanwhile, Import Prices give us a clue about inflation imported from abroad. If housing data comes in hotter than expected, it suggests the economy is resilient to high rates. However, this could arguably be bearish for bonds ($TLT ( ▲ 0.55% )), as it gives the Fed less urgency to cut rates. Watch homebuilder ETFs ($XHB ( ▲ 1.89% )) for immediate reactions to the construction data.

Data:
- Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
- Philadelphia Fed Index

The Advisor's Take: Weekly Jobless Claims remain the cleanest, most frequent read on the labor market. We are looking for cracks in the armor—a significant rise in claims often precedes a recession. We also get the Philly Fed Index, another regional manufacturing check to compare against Tuesday’s Empire State data. A steady labor market supports consumer spending but keeps the Fed cautious. If claims spike unexpectedly, we could see a "flight to safety," boosting gold ($GLD ( ▲ 2.49% )) or Treasury bonds ($TLT ( ▲ 0.55% )).

Data:
- PCE Prices (Personal Consumption Expenditures),
- Q4 GDP (Advanced)

The Advisor's Take: This is the most critical day of the week. PCE Prices is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation because it accounts for changes in consumer behavior (e.g., buying chicken when beef gets expensive). Q4 GDP is the headline number for economic growth. The market's reaction could be volatile. If PCE inflation remains "sticky" (refusing to come down), expect yields to rise and tech stocks ($QQQ ( ▲ 0.21% )), which are sensitive to interest rates, to potentially sell off. Conversely, a "Goldilocks" report—cooling inflation coupled with steady Personal Spending—would likely be the ideal scenario for the S&P 500 ($SPY ( ▲ 0.07% )).

All stocks are screened for sharia-compliance on Zoya. We also exclude companies in the following three databases: WhoProfits.org, The Official BDS Targets, The American Friends Service Committee Database

The Business Model
Constellation Energy generates revenue by producing and selling electricity through a diverse fleet of nuclear, thermal, and renewable generation assets, while serving wholesale and retail customers with energy management solutions.

The Bull Case
Bulls argue that the company's dominant nuclear fleet creates a "scarcity value" for reliable, carbon-free baseload power, positioning it as a prime beneficiary of the surging energy demand from data centers and the AI economy. Optimism is further underpinned by the recent $1 billion DOE loan for the Crane Clean Energy Center and consistent operational excellence—evidenced by 98.8% capacity factors during summer peaks—which supports sustained cash flow growth and capital returns.

The Bear Case
Risks include the potential for valuation compression if the company fails to flawlessly execute on integrating new assets or if the anticipated cadence of large-scale data center contracts slows down. Furthermore, bearish analysts caution that the current share price may already discount a robust growth trajectory, leaving the stock vulnerable to corrections if wholesale power prices normalize faster than expected.

*Please read the disclaimer at the end of this email before forming any opinions on the stock.

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That's all for this week. Make it a great one.