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Your Weekly Prediction Scorecard: Last week, we told you to watch three key indicators that would reveal whether the economy's resilience was real or manufactured, and the results painted a sobering picture of an economy under strain. The ISM Services Index dropped to 50.1 in July from 50.8 in June, barely staying above the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction in the sector that employs 80% of American professionals. Manufacturing PMI fell even harder to 49.8 from 52.0, signaling outright contraction in factory activity. As one analyst noted, "Both manufacturing and service sector ISM headline readings came in weaker than any analysts were forecasting" - confirming our warning that the services sector, which drives professional employment, was showing serious stress. The trade data revealed the tariff bill we predicted was indeed coming due, with import costs surging across multiple categories as companies struggled to absorb the escalating trade war expenses.

The Continuing Claims Surge: Continuing unemployment claims surged to 1.97 million in the week ending July 26th - the highest level since November 2021, revealing a labor market crisis hiding beneath headline job numbers. This represents an increase from 1.94 million the previous week, signaling that while companies may still be hiring, unemployed Americans are finding it increasingly difficult to land new positions.

The 15% Universal Tax: President Trump implemented his threatened "global baseline tariff" of 15-20% on countries that failed to reach trade deals by his August 1st deadline. The administration also announced new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. This creates an immediate cost-of-living crisis as imported goods become dramatically more expensive, while also signaling potential supply chain disruptions across technology and healthcare sectors that many companies depend on for operations.

Your 401(k) Is About to Get Weird: In a landmark reversal of retirement policy, the White House has just greenlit alternative assets for your 401(k). A new executive order directs the SEC and Department of Labor to tear down the walls that have kept crypto and private equity out of mainstream retirement plans. This move prioritizes aggressive investor choice over traditional caution, potentially unlocking a torrent of new capital and betting America's retirement future on more than just stocks and bonds.

The Big Picture: This week confirmed that the labor market's apparent strength was masking significant structural weaknesses, while Trump's escalating trade war has moved from targeted sectors to a broad-based consumption tax that will reshape both business costs and consumer spending patterns for the remainder of 2025.

July Price Report Tuesday: Tuesday morning brings the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July—essentially the government's official measure of how much more expensive everything got last month. After hovering below 3% in the second quarter, economists are watching for signs that tariff policies are finally pushing prices higher.

Why It Matters: When inflation runs hot, the Federal Reserve typically raises interest rates to cool things down, which makes borrowing more expensive for everyone. Rising inflation also erodes your purchasing power unless your salary keeps pace. If July's numbers come in high, expect market volatility and potential changes in Fed policy that could impact everything from your mortgage rate to your 401(k) performance.

July Shopping Report Friday: Friday delivers the Retail Sales report from the Commerce Department, showing whether Americans kept spending in July despite rising prices and economic uncertainty. This tracks sales at everything from department stores and restaurants to gas stations and online retailers. It's the clearest real-time snapshot of consumer confidence and spending power—the engine that drives about 70% of the American economy.

Why It Matters: Strong retail numbers signal continued economic growth and typically boost hiring across consumer-facing industries like hospitality, retail, marketing, and logistics. Weak numbers often foreshadow broader economic slowdowns that ripple through corporate spending and employment.

Factory Output Friday: Friday's Industrial Production report from the Federal Reserve shows whether American factories, mines, and utilities produced more or less in July. This measures the actual physical output of the economy—everything from cars and computers to steel and electricity. Recent months have been choppy due to tariff impacts and changing trade patterns, making July's reading crucial for understanding the manufacturing sector's true direction.

Why It Matters: Strong industrial production signals business confidence in future demand, leading to capital investment and hiring. Weak production often precedes broader economic slowdowns by several months.

Before you idolize another venture capitalist, turn your attention to the hedge fund world, where Moez Kassam’s Anson Funds has quietly turned an initial $4.2 million seed into a staggering $1.5 billion powerhouse. While the market obsesses over long-term growth, Kassam built his fortune by mastering the art of the event-driven, catalyst-focused trade. His team doesn’t just buy stocks; they dissect corporate filings, legal dockets, and supply chains to identify specific, near-term events—an earnings surprise, a regulatory approval, or a failed merger—that will force a stock to re-price, often employing sophisticated short positions to capitalize on over-hyped narratives. This strategy is about finding informational inefficiencies and having the conviction to act before the rest of the market catches on. The actionable insight is clear: Stop analyzing the 'what' and start hunting for the 'when'. In your career or investments, your greatest returns won't come from identifying a good company, but from identifying the specific catalyst that will make the world recognize its value now.

Read more about Moez on his website

This is the big one, isn't it? The idea of a 30-year interest-bearing loan from Big Bank Inc. is a non-starter. Enter Islamic home financing. It's not just a conventional mortgage with "Islamic" slapped on the label; these products are fundamentally different asset-ownership models.

The most common structure in North America is a cost-plus-profit sale, or Murabaha. Instead of lending you money, the finance provider buys the house on your behalf and sells it to you at a pre-agreed-upon higher price, which you pay back in installments. There's no interest, just a transparent profit margin. Other models like Ijara (lease-to-own) or Diminishing Musharaka (a joint partnership) also exist. Major players like Guidance Residential and UIF Corporation specialize in these contracts. Your monthly payment might feel like a mortgage, but the contract you're signing is worlds apart.

Tired of that last-minute December dash to pay your Zakat? Juggling spreadsheets and a dozen donation receipts is a noble mess, but there’s a smarter way to handle your giving.

Meet the Donor-Advised Fund (DAF).

Think of it as your own personal giving account—like having a private foundation, but without the billionaire price tag.

Here’s how it works:

Instead of donating piece by piece all year, you put a larger sum for your charity into the DAF at one time. You get the full tax write-off for that entire amount immediately.

The best part? If you donate assets like stock that have grown in value, you generally don't have to pay any tax on the profits. It's a massive financial and spiritual win.

Then, whenever you're ready—weeks or months later—you simply log in and tell the fund where to send the money. You can support your favorite masajid and causes with a few clicks, separating the tax stress from the thoughtful act of giving.

It’s a simple system: handle the finances once, then focus on impactful giving all year long.

Learn more about DAF’s and their tax benefits on Fidelity’s website

That’s the percentage of Muslim American adults holding a bachelor’s degree or higher, outpacing the U.S. national average of 37%. But the real story isn’t just that our community is educated; it’s that we represent a powerhouse of intellectual capital hiding in plain sight. There’s opportunity in building specialized talent pipelines for tech and consulting, creating high-impact corporate affinity groups that move beyond culture days to career development, and launching high-skill startups built by and for our community. We're not just a consumer market; we are the creators and executives of the future economy. The question is, how are you leveraging this intellectual wealth in your own ventures?

Read more in Pew Research Center's report here.

That's all for this week. Make it a great one.