Your Weekly Forecast Scorecard: Last week, we told you the Magnificent Seven earnings would set the tone for the market. Tesla's numbers came in as expected: total revenues down 12% year-on-year to $22.50 billion, with earnings per share down 23% to $0.40 - matching analyst forecasts. Meanwhile, Alphabet delivered a stronger performance with expected revenue of $93.97 billion and earnings of $2.20 per share, supported by strength in search, YouTube, and Cloud.

The Magnificent Seven are on course to grow earnings by 14.8% in aggregate during Q1 2025, while the other 493 S&P 500 companies managed just 5.1%.

The Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators also delivered a reality check, declining 0.3% in June to 98.8, meaning the LEI fell 2.8% over the first half of 2025. Having fallen for the third time in a row, the LEI is signaling a recession ahead, though The Conference Board has yet to issue an official warning.

Trump's AI Deregulation Gambit: President Trump unveiled his comprehensive AI Action Plan this week, focused on removing "bureaucratic red tape" to AI development and containing more than ninety policy recommendations designed to expand global sales of U.S. AI technology and speed up data center construction. The plan identifies over 90 federal policy actions across three pillars: accelerating innovation, building American AI infrastructure, and leading international diplomacy and security. The plan's emphasis on reducing oversight raises questions about AI safety standards and whether the administration prioritizes speed over security.

Fed Independence Under Siege: The Federal Reserve's independence continues to face unprecedented political pressure as tensions between Trump and Chair Jerome Powell reach new heights. While Powell maintains his public stance on monetary policy autonomy, the administration's open discussions about succession planning signal this isn't just political theater. Fed independence underpins the credibility of interest rate decisions - when markets doubt the Fed's autonomy, borrowing costs become less predictable and capital planning becomes significantly more challenging. Any erosion of Fed independence typically leads to higher long-term rates as investors demand a "political risk premium," directly impacting everything from corporate bonds to mortgage rates.

Ethereum’s Comeback Story: Ethereum has staged a remarkable comeback, with its price surging from less than $1500 in April to over $3800. Key factors include significant inflows of $2 billion into Ethereum ETFs within two weeks and growing corporate adoption, highlighted by a BlackRock digital assets expert taking a leadership role at Joseph Lubin's ETH vehicle, SharpLink. Experts like Paul Brody from EY suggest that Ethereum's established "Network Effect" has already made it the de facto network for stablecoins and tokenization, positioning it for potential dominance for decades.

Fed’s Interest Rate Decision Wednesday: The Federal Reserve concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday with markets expecting it to follow the European Central Bank in stressing a 'wait and see' approach to interest rates, holding steady at 4.25%-4.50%. The Fed is walking a tightrope between cooling inflation and avoiding economic damage from tariff disruptions. This meeting will set the tone for borrowing costs, mortgage rates, and business investment for the rest of 2025.

July Employment Report Tests Economic Resilience: Friday's nonfarm payrolls report for July will be the economic event of the week, providing the clearest read on whether the labor market remains robust amid trade policy uncertainty. A positive second-quarter growth is expected after the import-related dip in the first quarter. The jobs report remains the most market-moving data release each month, and July's reading will be crucial for Fed policy going forward. A strong report could delay rate cuts, while weakness might accelerate them.

Q2 GDP: The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases advance Q2 GDP data on Wednesday, with economists expecting around 2.5% annualized growth after a disappointing Q1. However, trends have been hard to read lately due to tariffs. While the front-loading of imports ahead of tariffs caused a net trade drag in the US in the first quarter, resulting in a drop in GDP, the eurozone saw a corresponding export bounce, boosting GDP. The composition of growth will matter more than the headline: consumer spending strength signals retail and service sector opportunities, while business investment trends reveal where companies see future growth.

After co-founding the disruptive venture firm Social Capital, Mamoon orchestrated the modern renaissance of Kleiner Perkins as a general partner. For those who don’t know, Kleiner Perkins is one of the most successful venture capital firms in the US, backing startups like Amazon, Google, and Twitter. Mamoon Hamid's track record is less a list of investments and more the blueprint for our modern digital workplace. He backed Slack before "digital HQ" was a buzzword, turning chaotic email chains into streamlined channels and leading to a $27.7 billion acquisition by Salesforce. He championed Figma when design was still siloed, betting on the collaborative, browser-based future that nearly commanded a $20 billion price tag from Adobe. Add in his early support for Box to secure our cloud content and Yammer to pioneer enterprise social networking, and the pattern is clear. Hamid doesn't just fund companies; he curates the very toolkit that ambitious professionals now use to compete and win.

Read more about Mamoon and the projects he’s backed on Kleiner Perkins’ website.

According to Joe Bradford, asking yourself these five questions can help guide whether a coin is Sharia-compliant or not:

Read more on Joe Bradford’s website.

That's all for this week. Go make it a great one.