A Personal Update: In February, I am transitioning from only writing about wealth to actively managing it as a Registered Investment Advisor Representative. I am currently opening a "First Access" list for subscribers interested in professional Halal portfolio management, tax planning, estate planning, and more. If you want to be notified first when my books open, simply reply "Waitlist" to this email.
LAST WEEK IN REVIEW
Silver Prices Shatter $100/oz Milestone Silver prices surged past $100 per ounce for the first time in history, gaining nearly 44% in January alone. This is a historic repricing driven by a "perfect storm" of industrial shortages and monetary hedging.
GDP Accelerates to 4.4% Third-quarter GDP was revised upward to 4.4%, the fastest growth in two years, while the Atlanta Fed’s "Nowcast" predicts the economy is currently expanding at a blistering 5.4% rate. The "recession" is nowhere in sight. Consumer spending jumped 0.5% in November, outpacing income growth (0.3%), suggesting households are drawing down savings to maintain lifestyles.
Trump Threatens 100% Tariff on Canada President Trump warned Canada faces a 100% tariff on all goods if it acts as a "drop off port" for Chinese products, specifically targeting a recent preliminary trade deal between Ottawa and Beijing. This threat endangers the free flow of goods under existing North American agreements; businesses relying on Canadian supply chains should prepare for immediate cost spikes or logistical chaos if these duties are implemented.
Greenland Dispute De-escalates; European Tariffs Paused Following a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, the President announced a "framework" for a future deal regarding Greenland and the Arctic, canceling the threatened tariffs on European allies that were set for February 1st. A massive trade war with the EU has been averted for now. The focus has shifted to security and mineral rights rather than outright purchase, stabilizing transatlantic markets that were bracing for impact.
Housing Market Crash: Pending Sales Plunge 9.3% Pending home sales collapsed by 9.3% in December, far missing estimates of a 1.0% gain, hitting their lowest level since the pandemic lockdowns of April 2020. While the broader economy booms, housing is in a deep freeze; high prices and volatile rates have paralyzed transactions, meaning real estate liquidity is drying up for sellers needing to exit the market.
Supreme Court Signals Caution on Fed Firing The Supreme Court heard arguments regarding the attempted removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook; justices appeared skeptical of allowing an immediate firing without due process, though a final ruling may be narrow and procedural. The court seems inclined to slow down the Executive Branch's attempt to overhaul the Fed; a delay in this firing preserves the central bank's current policy stance, likely keeping interest rates higher for longer to fight inflation.
YOUR WEEKLY FORECAST
Tuesday, January 27
Data:
- S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
- New Home Sales
- FOMC Meeting Begins
The Advisor's Take: As the Federal Reserve begins its two-day policy meeting, we get a read on the American housing market.
Housing Inflation: The Case-Shiller Index tracks home prices. If prices are re-accelerating, it gives the "Hawks" at the Fed ammunition to keep rates higher for longer, which would be a headwind for bonds ($TLT ( ▲ 0.24% )).
Wednesday, January 28
Data:
- FOMC Rate Decision & Press Conference
- EIA Crude Oil Inventories
- Important Earnings: Microsoft ($MSFT), Meta ($META), Tesla ($TSLA), ASML ($ASML), Lam Research ($LRCX)
The Advisor's Take: This is arguably the single most important trading day of Q1.
The Fed: While no massive surprises are expected, every word from the Chair will be scrutinized. A "hawkish hold" could spike volatility ($VIX ( ▼ 2.12% ))
The AI Verdict ($MSFT, $META): The market demands proof that massive AI spending is generating revenue now. If guidance is soft, expect software stocks to sell off aggressively.
Chip Equipment ($ASML, $LRCX): These are the "arms dealers" of the chip war. Their guidance tells us if the semiconductor cycle is expanding or peaking.
The Wildcard ($TSLA): Tesla's margins are the key focus. Any surprise here often ripples through the entire EV and high-growth complex.
Thursday, January 29
Data:
- Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
- Factory Orders
- Important Earnings: Apple ($AAPL), SanDisk ($SNDK)
The Advisor's Take: The volatility likely continues as we digest the Fed's reaction and turn to the consumer hardware giant.
The Bellwether: Apple ($AAPL ( ▼ 0.2% )) is the ultimate test of the global consumer. Weak iPhone numbers (especially in China) could drag down the entire Nasdaq 100 ($QQQ ( ▼ 1.54% )).
Memory Boom or Bust? The memory sector has been "red hot." Sandisk ($SNDK ( ▲ 4.55% )) will show if pricing power for storage (NAND/Flash) is holding up. If they miss, it could signal that the memory cycle—and stocks like Micron ($MU ( ▼ 4.19% ))—have run too far, too fast.
Labor Watch: Don't ignore Jobless Claims. If the tech earnings are bad and claims rise, recession fears will resurface.
Friday, January 30
Data:
- Producer Price Index (PPI)
- Chicago PMI
The Advisor's Take: Just as the market digests the Fed and Earnings, we get the PPI (Wholesale Inflation).
Why It Matters: If PPI comes in "hot," it suggests inflation is stuck in the supply chain pipeline. This would validate any hawkishness from the Fed on Wednesday and could cause a Friday sell-off in bonds ($TLT ( ▲ 0.24% )), pushing yields back toward that 4.30% danger zone.
The Final Word: Watch the Chicago PMI. It’s a regional manufacturing index that often leads national trends. A weak number here, combined with hot inflation, is the dreaded "Stagflation" signal.
HALAL STOCK SPOTLIGHT*
All stocks are screened for sharia-compliance on Zoya. We also exclude companies in the following three databases: WhoProfits.org, The Official BDS Targets, The American Friends Service Committee Database
ASML Holding N.V. ($ASML ( ▼ 3.16% ))
The Business Model ASML serves as a critical supplier to the semiconductor industry, generating revenue through the design and sale of advanced photolithography systems used in the manufacturing of integrated circuits.
The Bull Case Bulls argue that channel checks pointing to wafer fab equipment spending potentially exceeding $150 billion validate the company's long-term growth narrative and dominant market position. Furthermore, updated analyst models reflect increased confidence that strong industry demand will support resilient margins and justify higher earnings multiples over time.
The Bear Case Risks include the fragility of the global semiconductor supply chain and geopolitical tensions, particularly involving China, which could impede trade and limit market access. Additionally, skeptics note that with valuation multiples expanding and expectations set high, the stock faces heightened downside risk if capital expenditure cycles slow or execution falters.
While analyzing individual stocks like $ASML ( ▼ 3.16% ) is valuable, true wealth preservation comes from a diversified, compliant strategy, not just picking winners. If you want to build a holistic portfolio and minimize taxes on your returns, reply "Portfolio" to see how I can help.
*Please read the disclaimer at the end of this email before forming any opinions on the stock.
MONEY TALKS
Why the Wealthy Run Their Families Like a Business
If you study how the Rockefellers or the Waltons manage their wealth, you won't find a scattered collection of personal brokerage accounts. You’ll find entities. Specifically, the Family Limited Liability Company (Family LLC).
Think of the Family LLC as a protective container for your wealth. Instead of owning assets in your own name (where they are visible and vulnerable), you transfer them into the LLC. You become the manager, and your family members become "members" (shareholders).
Why do this?
Asset Protection: It creates a legal firewall between your personal liabilities and your family’s nest egg. A lawsuit against you personally may not be able to pierce the LLC to get to the assets inside.
Control Without Ownership: You can gift shares of the LLC to your children to reduce your taxable estate, yet retain 100% of the voting rights as the Manager. You give them the wealth, but you keep the steering wheel.
Streamlined Inheritance: Dividing illiquid assets (like a rental property or a business interest) according to Islamic inheritance can be a nightmare—often forcing a sale just to split the cash. With a Family LLC, you don't sell the building; you simply distribute the shares of the LLC. The asset stays intact; the ownership adjusts.
Here’s the catch: A Family LLC is a legal shell—it is useless if the assets inside aren't pulling their weight. Furthermore, mixing family money with business structures requires rigorous bookkeeping. If you treat it like a personal piggy bank, the legal protections crumble.
This is where wealth managers come in. They don't just pick stocks; they act as the "Chief Investment Officer" for your Family LLC. They can help you draft a Sharia-compliant Investment Policy Statement (IPS) that governs the entire entity. Whether the LLC holds real estate, private equity, or public markets portfolios, they can ensure the assets growing inside the structure are permissible, productive, and aligned with your family’s multi-generational goals.
If you want to discuss if a Family LLC structure is appropriate for your level of wealth, reply to this email. Let’s talk.
In today’s world, who you know is becoming more important than what you know. Join the largest online community of Muslim professionals in North America at muslimprofessionals.us.
That's all for this week. Make it a great one.
IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMER*
Please read this disclaimer carefully before proceeding. By reading and using the information provided in this newsletter, you acknowledge and agree to the terms outlined below.
1. Not Financial or Investment Advice The content provided in this newsletter, including all articles, market analysis, economic news, stock picks, trading plans (including entry prices, stop losses, price targets), catalysts, and risk assessments, is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be construed as financial, investment, tax, legal, or any other form of professional advice. No fiduciary relationship is created by your subscription to or use of this newsletter.
2. Consult a Professional Advisor The author(s) and publisher of this newsletter are not licensed financial advisors, registered investment advisers, or broker-dealers. You should not make any investment decision based solely on the information presented here. It is imperative that you consult with a qualified and licensed financial professional to determine if a particular investment or strategy is suitable for your individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.
3. Inherent Risk of Investing All forms of investing carry significant risk. The stock market is volatile, and you may lose some or all of your invested capital. There is no guarantee that any of the strategies or stock picks discussed will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
4. No Guarantee of Accuracy or Completeness While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, we make no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, adequacy, validity, reliability, availability, or completeness of any information in this newsletter. We are not liable for any errors, omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All information is provided on an "as-is" basis.
5. Disclaimer on "Halal" and Shariah Compliance The term "halal stock picks" refers to securities that have been screened against certain publicly available, third-party Shariah-compliance criteria at the time of publication. These standards can vary among different scholars, organizations, and screening services. The Shariah-compliant status of a company can change over time. We make no guarantee or warranty as to the Shariah-compliant status of any security mentioned. It is your sole responsibility to conduct your own due diligence and consult with your own qualified religious scholar to determine if an investment aligns with your personal Islamic principles.
6. Separation from Muslim Professionals of the Americas This newsletter is an independent publication. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed herein belong solely to the author(s) of the newsletter and do not represent the views, policies, or official positions of the nonprofit organization Muslim Professionals of the Americas, its board of directors, officers, or members. Muslim Professionals of the Americas is a separate legal entity and assumes absolutely no liability or responsibility for the content of this newsletter, any financial losses, or any other damages incurred from its use.
7. Personal Holdings The author(s) of this newsletter may, from time to time, hold positions in the securities mentioned herein. The presentation of any stock is not a solicitation or direct recommendation to buy or sell that security.
