LAST WEEK IN REVIEW
Gold Goes "Parabolic" in Biggest Weekly Gain Since 2020 Gold futures surged 7% to over $4,300 an ounce, driven by a perfect storm of US-China trade tensions, expectations of another Fed rate cut, and regional bank jitters. This massive flight to safety signals deep investor anxiety about geopolitical risk and the global economy.
Whiplash Trade Talk Leaves Markets on Edge President Trump's rhetoric on China swung wildly, first confirming a trade war before stating threatened tariff levels were "not sustainable." This unpredictability creates massive uncertainty for businesses, a sentiment echoed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which officially downgraded its global growth forecast, citing the tariff conflict as a primary drag.
Government Shutdown Likely to Bleed Into November With no deal in sight, Washington insiders now widely expect the government shutdown to extend into November, potentially making it the longest in US history. The economic damage is mounting daily, and the next pressure points for a resolution are seen as end-of-month deadlines for military pay and healthcare open enrollment.
Wall Street Banks Post Blowout Profits, But Warn of "Murky Outlook" Major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs reported stellar third-quarter earnings, crushing expectations thanks to a surge in investment banking and trading revenue. Despite the strong results, top CEOs issued stark warnings about "complex geopolitical conditions" and "trade uncertainty," signaling that the good times may be masking underlying risks.
Manufacturing Data Signals Cautious Optimism Both the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index and New York's Empire State survey showed signals of moderate growth and cautious optimism for manufacturing in the months ahead.
Small Business Optimism Falters The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined, signaling that small business owners are growing more pessimistic about economic conditions.
Q3 Growth Forecast Jumps Higher Despite other warning signs, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model revised its forecast for third-quarter economic growth up to a hot 3.9%, complicating the overall economic outlook.
YOUR WEEKLY FORECAST
Monday, October 20th:
Leading Indicators: This composite index is designed to predict the future direction of the economy, providing a three-to-six-month forecast of economic activity.
Wednesday, October 22nd:
MBA Mortgage Applications: A timely indicator for the housing market, as a rise in mortgage applications points to future home-buying and construction.
EIA Crude Oil Inventories: The amount of oil in storage directly impacts prices at the gas pump for consumers and transportation costs for nearly every business.
Thursday, October 23rd:
Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims: This is the most current weekly snapshot of the labor market, offering a real-time look at the pace of layoffs.
Existing Home Sales: A key gauge of the housing market's health that drives broader consumer spending on items like furniture, appliances, and home improvement.
EIA Natural Gas Inventories: This supply data influences utility costs for both households and businesses, especially as winter approaches.
Friday, October 24th:
Consumer Price Index (CPI): The most important measure of inflation, this report directly impacts your cost of living, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and the real value of your investments.
New Home Sales: Measures the health of the U.S. construction sector and reflects consumer confidence in making significant long-term financial commitments.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: A critical survey of the consumer's mood; because consumer spending drives about 70% of the economy, confidence is a strong predictor of future growth.
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING*
LONG TERM PLAYS:
Micron Technology ($MU ( ▲ 4.17% )):
Price Target: $240/share
Recent Analyst Coverage: Strong growth, cash reserves
Lam Research Company ($LRCX ( ▼ 3.3% )):
Price Target: $142/share
Recent Analyst Coverage: Strong competitive moat, positioned to benefit from AI growth
Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM ( ▲ 0.93% )):
Price Target: $335/share
Recent Analyst Coverage: Strong competitive moat, large clients like Apple, Tesla, NVIDIA, and AMD
Broadcom ($AVGO ( ▲ 0.73% )):
Price Target: $387/share
Recent Analyst Coverage: Emerging as strong competitor to NVIDIA with custom AI chips, big deals with OpenAI, Google, Meta, TikTok
Advanced Micro Devices ($AMD ( ▼ 0.46% )):
Price Target: $300/share
Recent Analyst Coverage: Announced deals with OpenAI, Meta, and Oracle
Arista Networks ($ANET ( ▲ 0.82% )):
Price Target: $170/share
Recent Analyst Coverage: Strong growth, healthy margins
SHORT TERM WATCHLIST
Bitcoin ($BTC.X ( ▼ 0.23% ))
Thoughts: Bitcoin could be in a good long-term accumulation zone if it hits $102K. Wait for it to stabilize before entering, it could fall to $100K near-term.
*READ OUR DISCLAIMER AT THE BOTTOM OF THE NEWSLETTER BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENTS
MOVERS & SHAKERS
Bilal Zuberi and Narrative-Led Investing
As a partner at Lux Capital, a VC firm that backs audacious deep-tech ventures, Bilal Zuberi doesn't just invest in brilliant science; he invests in a brilliant story. His core strategy recognizes that for revolutionary (and often incredibly complex) technologies, the most critical element for success is a compelling narrative. He seeks out founders who can articulate not just what their technology does, but what future it enables. This story is what convinces the first engineers to leave their safe jobs, what secures the next round of funding when revenue is years away, and what lands the lighthouse customer willing to take a chance. The insight is essential for anyone building something complex: Your product’s story is as mission-critical as its code. You can have the most advanced technology in the world, but without a clear and inspiring narrative, it's just a solution without a problem..
Read more about him here
MONEY TALKS
A Tax-Free Way to Pay for Islamic School
You see the numbers and you know they’re not getting any smaller. The future cost of college is daunting, but for many families, the more immediate pressure is the five-figure annual bill for private K-12 tuition.
Most people treat this as a straightforward expense to be paid from their post-tax checking account. But a powerful savings vehicle, originally designed for college, has a built-in feature that lets you pay for your child’s current private school tuition with a massive tax advantage.
Meet the 529 Plan.
You’ve probably heard of it as a "college savings account," but a key change in the law a few years ago turned it into an elite tool for parents. A 529 plan offers a triple-tax advantage that is hard to beat:
Tax-Deductible Contributions: Depending on your state, you may get a state income tax deduction for the money you contribute.
Tax-Free Growth: Your money is invested and grows completely free from federal and state taxes.
Tax-Free Withdrawals: The money comes out tax-free when used for qualified education expenses.
Here is the game-changing hack: "Qualified education expenses" now includes up to $10,000 per year, per child, for K-12 tuition.
This means you can open a 529, contribute money (potentially getting an immediate state tax break), and then almost immediately withdraw it to pay the bill for the Islamic school or other private school your child already attends. You are effectively giving yourself a discount on tuition equal to your state's income tax rate.
If your child is still young, even better. Start funding it now and let decades of tax-free compound growth work its magic for their future college expenses. It’s one of the most powerful wealth-building tools available to parents, and you can start one in less than 15 minutes.
In today’s world, who you know is becoming more important than what you know. Join the largest online community of Muslim professionals in North America at muslimprofessionals.us.
That's all for this week. Make it a great one.
How did you like this week's issue?
IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMER
Please read this disclaimer carefully before proceeding. By reading and using the information provided in this newsletter, you acknowledge and agree to the terms outlined below.
1. Not Financial or Investment Advice The content provided in this newsletter, including all articles, market analysis, economic news, stock picks, trading plans (including entry prices, stop losses, price targets), catalysts, and risk assessments, is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be construed as financial, investment, tax, legal, or any other form of professional advice. No fiduciary relationship is created by your subscription to or use of this newsletter.
2. Consult a Professional Advisor The author(s) and publisher of this newsletter are not licensed financial advisors, registered investment advisers, or broker-dealers. You should not make any investment decision based solely on the information presented here. It is imperative that you consult with a qualified and licensed financial professional to determine if a particular investment or strategy is suitable for your individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.
3. Inherent Risk of Investing All forms of investing carry significant risk. The stock market is volatile, and you may lose some or all of your invested capital. There is no guarantee that any of the strategies or stock picks discussed will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
4. No Guarantee of Accuracy or Completeness While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, we make no representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, regarding the accuracy, adequacy, validity, reliability, availability, or completeness of any information in this newsletter. We are not liable for any errors, omissions, or for the results obtained from the use of this information. All information is provided on an "as-is" basis.
5. Disclaimer on "Halal" and Shariah Compliance The term "halal stock picks" refers to securities that have been screened against certain publicly available, third-party Shariah-compliance criteria at the time of publication. These standards can vary among different scholars, organizations, and screening services. The Shariah-compliant status of a company can change over time. We make no guarantee or warranty as to the Shariah-compliant status of any security mentioned. It is your sole responsibility to conduct your own due diligence and consult with your own qualified religious scholar to determine if an investment aligns with your personal Islamic principles.
6. Separation from Muslim Professionals of the Americas This newsletter is an independent publication. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed herein belong solely to the author(s) of the newsletter and do not represent the views, policies, or official positions of the nonprofit organization Muslim Professionals of the Americas, its board of directors, officers, or members. Muslim Professionals of the Americas is a separate legal entity and assumes absolutely no liability or responsibility for the content of this newsletter, any financial losses, or any other damages incurred from its use.
7. Personal Holdings The author(s) of this newsletter may, from time to time, hold positions in the securities mentioned herein. The presentation of any stock is not a solicitation or direct recommendation to buy or sell that security.
