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Last Week in Review

Your Weekly Forecast Scorecard: This week's economic data sent a flurry of conflicting signals, starting with a surprisingly strong housing market where new home sales surged an incredible 20.5% in August even as existing home sales remained flat. Thursday's advance trade data showed the goods deficit narrowed sharply, a positive for economic growth calculations. The week's most critical report landed Friday, revealing that while personal income and spending continued to grow solidly, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—remained stubbornly high, rising 2.7% from a year ago, keeping pressure on policymakers.
Powell Walks the Tightrope: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the central bank's difficult position in a speech on Tuesday, stating there is "no risk-free path" for monetary policy. With the job market weakening but inflation still elevated, Powell emphasized the Fed must balance "two-sided risks," a direct reference to the internal division among policymakers. The comments came just a day after Fed Governor Stephen Miran argued rates should be two percentage points lower, while others like St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned there is limited room for further cuts without risking higher inflation, highlighting the profound uncertainty guiding the nation's economic stewardship.
Nvidia’s Circular Logic?: The artificial intelligence sector was rattled this week by news that chip giant Nvidia plans to invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI, a move that intensified concerns about "circular financing" within the industry. The deal structure raises questions about whether Nvidia, the primary beneficiary of the AI boom, is effectively propping up its own market by providing capital to its biggest customers, who in turn use the funds to purchase Nvidia's expensive chips. Analysts immediately flagged the deal as fueling "bubble-like behavior," suggesting that some of the explosive demand driving the AI gold rush may be artificially engineered rather than organic.
The Big Picture: The Federal Reserve finds itself navigating a treacherous economic landscape with no easy answers, trapped between a weakening job market and persistent inflation, all while the market's hottest sector displays financial engineering that raises serious questions about the sustainability of its own boom.
Your Weekly Forecast
Consumer Confidence Report (Tuesday): The week kicks off with the release of the Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board. This is a monthly survey that measures how optimistic or pessimistic households are about their personal financial situation and the economy at large. Think of it as a nationwide mood ring for the American consumer, reflecting feelings about job prospects, business conditions, and income expectations.
Why It Matters: Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the U.S. economy, this report is a crucial leading indicator of future economic activity. A strong reading suggests that spending will remain robust, fueling corporate profits and economic growth. A sudden drop in confidence can be an early warning that households are getting nervous and may soon pull back on spending.
The Labor Market Warm-Up (Tuesday & Wednesday): Before Friday's main event, we get two important preliminary reports on the health of the job market. On Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS), which details the number of unfilled jobs, hires, and layoffs. Then on Wednesday, payroll processor ADP releases its National Employment Report, its private-sector estimate of job creation.
Why It Matters: These reports provide an early look under the hood of the U.S. labor market. JOLTS tells us about the demand for labor; a high number of job openings signals that companies are eager to hire. The "quits rate" within JOLTS is especially insightful—when workers feel confident enough to voluntarily leave their jobs, it indicates a healthy market with plenty of opportunities. The ADP report gives a first glimpse of the job creation numbers, helping to shape expectations for Friday's official government data.
The Main Event: The U.S. Employment Report (Friday): The week culminates with the Employment Situation Summary—often called the "Jobs Report" or "Nonfarm Payrolls." This is the most market-moving piece of economic data each month. It reveals the official tally of jobs created or lost, the unemployment rate, and, critically, the pace of wage growth (Average Hourly Earnings).
Why It Matters: This report is the definitive monthly scorecard for the American economy and directly influences Federal Reserve policy. Strong job growth and rising wages are great for workers but can fuel inflation, potentially prompting the Fed to keep interest rates high. Weak numbers signal economic trouble, which could lead the Fed to cut rates to stimulate growth. The results will immediately impact stock markets, bond yields, and the U.S. dollar.
The Halal Stock Spotlight*
KVYO
TD Cowen has reiterated its "Buy" rating and $46 price target for Klaviyo, naming it the firm's top small-to-mid-cap (SMIDCap) stock pick.
1. Strategic Pivot to an AI-First Platform
The core of the bullish thesis is Klaviyo's transformation into an AI-first platform, highlighted by the release of new monetizing AI agents. These agents are designed to execute marketing and customer service tasks on behalf of businesses, leveraging the company's strong data foundation.
2. Expansion into New Markets
Klaviyo is expanding its addressable market by moving beyond its traditional marketing focus into new areas, most notably customer service. This strategic shift into a broader, multi-product vendor is viewed as a significant new growth catalyst.
3. Balancing High Growth with Profitability
The company demonstrates a strong financial profile, maintaining a growth rate of over 30% while adhering to the "Rule of >40." Analysts are also positive on management's plan to deliver significant margin expansion over the next three years while still prioritizing top-line growth.
*This is not a recommendation to buy/sell any asset. Halal status is as determined by AAOIFI standards and is subject to change after the time of writing this publication
Movers & Shakers

Moderna Cofounder Noubar Afeyan and Manufacturing Success
We know Moderna for its revolutionary mRNA vaccine, but the real genius is the man in the chairman's seat, Noubar Afeyan, and the company-creation factory he built, Flagship Pioneering. Flagship doesn't operate like a typical venture capital firm that simply invests in existing ideas. Instead, they "pioneer." They start with huge, speculative "what if" questions, form internal teams of scientists to explore them, and build entire platform companies—like Moderna—long before a single product exists. This strategy transforms innovation from a random lightning strike into a repeatable industrial process. They aren't just hunting for unicorns; they've built a system that manufactures them. The replicable strategy is a call to elevate your ambition: Stop waiting for the next big thing and start building the ecosystem that reliably creates it. Whether in a corporate division or your own startup, the ultimate competitive advantage is a process that can generate and test breakthrough ideas on demand.
Read more about him on Forbes
The Halal Hustle
Q: Every financial advisor says I need bonds for a balanced portfolio, but they're based on interest. Is there a halal alternative for stable, fixed-income investing?
You're right to be skeptical. A conventional bond is fundamentally a loan where the issuer promises to pay you back with interest, making it off-limits. The answer for Muslim investors looking for portfolio stability is not a "halal bond," but an entirely different instrument called a Sukuk.
Here’s the key difference:
A bond is a certificate of debt. You are a lender.
A Sukuk is a certificate of ownership. You are a part-owner of an underlying tangible asset (like real estate, a power plant, or machinery).
Instead of earning interest, a Sukuk holder earns a share of the profit generated by the asset they co-own—for example, a portion of the rental income from the real estate. It provides a similar risk/return profile to a bond but does so through an Shariah-compliant, asset-backed structure. Nama Private Wealth* can help you explore low-risk options that fit your needs for free; building a diversified portfolio with a "fixed-income" alternative has never been more accessible for North American professionals.
*Nama Private Wealth is a sponsor of this newsletter
Money Talks
Standard financial advice is built around the workplace. But what about the spouse who isn't in the traditional workforce? Maybe they’re raising children, launching a new venture with zero income, or taking a well-deserved sabbatical. A dangerous misconception is that if you don't have "earned income," you can't save for retirement in an IRA.
This is where the IRS provides a powerful and often-overlooked provision: the Spousal IRA.
It’s a rule that allows a working spouse to make IRA contributions on behalf of their non-working or lower-earning partner, effectively doubling a family's ability to save in these powerful accounts.
The mechanics are simple:
You Must File Jointly: This strategy is for married couples who file their taxes together.
You Need Enough Income: The working spouse must have enough earned income to cover the contributions for both individuals.
You Each Get an Account: You contribute the maximum allowable amount (for example, $7,000 in 2025) to your own IRA, and then you can contribute that same maximum amount to a separate IRA opened in your spouse's name. It is their account, under their Social Security number.
The result? Your family can potentially sock away $14,000 a year in tax-advantaged retirement accounts, even if one of you technically earned $0.
In today’s world, who you know is becoming more important than what you know. Join the largest online community of Muslim professionals in North America at muslimprofessionals.us.
That's all for this week. Make it a great one.
