LAST WEEK IN REVIEW
Fed Minutes Reveal Deepening Divide The minutes from the December FOMC meeting showed a contentious 9-3 vote in favor of the recent rate cut, with a vocal minority pushing to hold rates steady due to inflation risks. With policymakers split on whether to prioritize labor market weakness or sticky inflation, expect future rate cuts to be slower and more data-dependent than the market currently prices in.
Commodities Crash on Margin Hike Gold and silver futures plunged—with silver dropping 8%—after the CME raised margin requirements to flush out excessive leverage following a year where silver prices doubled.
U.S. Seizes Control of Venezuelan Oil The Trump administration announced a takeover of Venezuela’s oil reserves, planning to deploy U.S. companies to rehabilitate the country's degraded infrastructure following the arrest of President Maduro.
Housing Market Defies High Rates Pending Home Sales unexpectedly surged 3.3% (vs. 1.1% estimated), and home prices continued to climb (Case-Shiller +1.3%), defying the gravity of high borrowing costs. Buyers are adjusting to the "new normal," which keeps a floor under prices and ensures that shelter inflation will remain a stubborn headache for the Fed.
Labor Market Tightens Initial jobless claims dropped to 199,000, smashing expectations of 222,000, suggesting employers are hoarding workers despite headline layoff announcements.
Manufacturing Sends Mixed Signals The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI signaled expansion (51.8), while the Chicago PMI signaled deep contraction (43.5). The industrial economy is disjointed; while national activity is stabilizing, regional hubs are still struggling, suggesting that the manufacturing recovery is uneven and fragile.
YOUR WEEKLY FORECAST
Monday, January 5
Data:
- ISM Manufacturing Index
The Advisor's Take: We kick off 2026 with a look at the industrial heart of the economy. The ISM Manufacturing Index is a diffusion index—anything below 50 signals contraction.
The Trend: Manufacturing has struggled to find footing recently. Investors are looking for a move back toward 50 to confirm that the industrial recession is over.
Asset Watch: If this print surprises to the upside, expect a bid for industrial stocks ($XLI ( ▲ 0.76% )). However, a weak number could weigh on commodities like Copper and Oil, dragging down the materials sector ($XLB ( ▲ 1.76% )).
Wednesday, January 7
Data:
- JOLTS – Job Openings
- ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) Index
- ADP Employment Change
- EIA Crude Oil Inventories
The Advisor's Take: This is the busiest mid-week session in months.
The Fed's Favorite: All eyes are on JOLTS. The Fed wants to see the ratio of job openings to unemployed workers balance out. A drop in openings is actually "good" for the market ($SPY ( ▼ 0.01% )) right now because it suggests wage pressure is cooling without people actually losing their jobs.
The Real Economy: While manufacturing (Monday) gets the headlines, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index tracks the services sector, which makes up ~70% of the U.S. economy. If this index stays strong while manufacturing is weak, the "soft landing" narrative holds. If Services cracks, recession fears will spike.
Thursday, January 8
Data:
- Productivity – Preliminary
- Unit Labor Costs – Preliminary
- Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
The Advisor's Take: While less "sexy" than jobs reports, Productivity is the magic variable economists love.
Why It Matters: High productivity allows the economy to grow and pay higher wages without causing inflation. If Productivity is up and Unit Labor Costs are down, it is the "Goldilocks" scenario for stocks ($QQQ ( ▼ 0.57% )).
The Risk: If Unit Labor Costs spike, it suggests companies are paying more to produce the same amount of goods—a margin killer that could hurt upcoming earnings reports.
Friday, January 9
Data:
- Nonfarm Payrolls (The Jobs Report)
- Unemployment Rate
- Average Hourly Earnings
- Housing Starts & Building Permits
- U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
The Advisor's Take: This is the main event. The "Jobs Report" sets the trading tone for the rest of January.
The Wage Spiral: Pay close attention to Average Hourly Earnings. If wages are growing too fast (e.g., >0.4% month-over-month), the bond market ($TLT ( ▼ 0.5% )) will sell off violently as traders fear the Fed will keep rates high to fight inflation.
Housing Reality: Hidden behind the jobs news is Housing Starts. With mortgage rates fluctuating, this data point will tell us if builders are confident enough to break ground on new projects. A strong number here is bullish for Homebuilders ($XHB ( ▲ 3.73% )).
HALAL STOCK SPOTLIGHT*
All stocks are screened for sharia-compliance on Zoya. We also exclude companies in the following three databases: WhoProfits.org, The Official BDS Targets, The American Friends Service Committee Database
Applied Digital ($APLD ( ▲ 8.05% ))
The Business Model Applied Digital designs, builds, and operates next-generation data centers tailored for High-Performance Computing (HPC) and artificial intelligence, generating revenue primarily through long-term hosting contracts and infrastructure leases with hyperscale tenants.
The Bull Case Bulls emphasize that the company's strategic pivot to AI infrastructure is validated by significant long-term contracts, including an $11 billion agreement with CoreWeave and a recent $5 billion lease with a major hyperscaler. Proponents argue that the company's substantial pipeline of secured power and active campus developments positions it to capture recurring, high-margin revenue in an environment of scarce data center capacity.
The Bear Case Risks include the company's intensive capital expenditure requirements and reliance on debt and equity financing, which have led to significant share dilution and a leveraged balance sheet. Skeptics also point to the stock's premium valuation relative to current sales and the execution risks associated with simultaneously managing multiple large-scale construction projects for a concentrated customer base.
*Please read the disclaimer at the end of this email before forming any opinions on the stock.
MONEY TALKS
Q: "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) services like Klarna and Affirm are everywhere. They say 0% interest, so are they halal?
On the surface, BNPL services seem like the Shariah-compliant alternative to credit cards we’ve been waiting for. If you select the "pay in 4 installments" option with strictly 0% interest, the transaction itself is generally considered a permissible loan (Qard).
However, the devil is in the details—specifically the late fees. If you miss a payment and are charged a fee that isn't purely administrative (i.e., it increases based on the time or amount outstanding), that mirrors riba. Most scholars permit using these services if the terms are clearly 0% and you are absolutely certain you will pay on time to avoid triggering impermissible penalties.
The Warning: Just because it’s halal doesn’t mean it’s smart. BNPL is psychologically designed to decouple the "pain of paying" from the purchase, leading to overconsumption. If you’re using it to buy sneakers you can't afford cash for today, you have a budgeting problem, not a fiqh problem.
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That's all for this week. Make it a great one.
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IMPORTANT LEGAL DISCLAIMER*
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2. Consult a Professional Advisor The author(s) and publisher of this newsletter are not licensed financial advisors, registered investment advisers, or broker-dealers. You should not make any investment decision based solely on the information presented here. It is imperative that you consult with a qualified and licensed financial professional to determine if a particular investment or strategy is suitable for your individual financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives.
3. Inherent Risk of Investing All forms of investing carry significant risk. The stock market is volatile, and you may lose some or all of your invested capital. There is no guarantee that any of the strategies or stock picks discussed will be profitable. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Never invest money that you cannot afford to lose.
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5. Disclaimer on "Halal" and Shariah Compliance The term "halal stock picks" refers to securities that have been screened against certain publicly available, third-party Shariah-compliance criteria at the time of publication. These standards can vary among different scholars, organizations, and screening services. The Shariah-compliant status of a company can change over time. We make no guarantee or warranty as to the Shariah-compliant status of any security mentioned. It is your sole responsibility to conduct your own due diligence and consult with your own qualified religious scholar to determine if an investment aligns with your personal Islamic principles.
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